BuzzerBeater Forums

What opportunity?

My league's average team salary = 700k
Away PO game income = 180k
Probability of advancing to 2nd PO game = i just assume 50% but it should be much lower.

Expected value of making 3rd/4th (as opposed to 5th)
= PO game income - 1 week salary + higher attendance income for next season
= 180k + 180k*50% - 700k + higher attendance income
= -430k + higher attendance income
(The higher attendance income should be further discounted because you will get it later rather than instantly but I'll just leave it here)

It all becomes apparent when you do the math. What opportunity are you talking about?

Last edited by 7ton at 4/21/2012 11:54:14 PM

I am at least sure that it is at least 3 per cent, if we count with that low number you pay 100k for th chanche for the second round where you also earn more ;) If it was 5 per cent you are even break even, ok you get the money later buthey you want succes right? And i don't think the 5% are that utopic, i just remember one season where a tema tanked down(i believe that time from 4 to 6) and was nearly that succesful like me the next season, and the visitor income was quite different with comparable arenas.

Last edited by CrazyEye at 4/22/2012 5:24:09 AM

Sorry I can't understand the 100k here and there. You can't come up with numbers out of thin air. All I know is the -430k I am facing will be hard to fill.

Last edited by 7ton at 4/22/2012 10:44:53 AM

i used a low estimate, on the additional arena income the next eason and that it are 3 per cent i am pretty sure. And if you calculate with 50% chanche, which is indeed to high you should atleast add this income from the next game for the calculation but if you exclude everything on the plus side you end up with a minus.

Last edited by CrazyEye at 4/22/2012 12:52:23 PM

Expected value of making 3rd/4th (as opposed to 5th)

You negate the fact that "tanking" for 5th spot usually lowers your this seasons income. Seldom teams end up at the 5th with noone else wanting it. We know that good record overall and winning away games, gives you a pretty big bonus, over teams who opt to lose. Well I have never ended up 5th. But I have experience of being the last a few seasons ago. My arena income was constantly dropping. II.div was a disaster considering arena income, although I finished with 22-0 record. This season my arena income has been rising, but not having the same amount of season ticket holders, I still can't match the first incomes I had when promoting the last time. So if getting a better spot in standings adds more STH-s. I would opt for the best spot I can reach, instead of losing about 50k a week (and more adding up over the season) to tank for 5th, to maximize the STH thus increasing income max and "salary cap" leverage.
There are a lot of different teams out there, some still sell players before playoffs (even if they make it), for the "higher transfer value". So shooting out some plain averages is not really acceptable research.

I see your point and it makes sense, but I guess, well, I am stubborn/stupid that way.

Sure I never claim my calculation to be perfect. I would appreciate if smart people like you can improve it.

There are too many variables and not enough overall info to base the calculation on. BB's have the most accurate info, why people choose to ignore their sayings is bizarre...

Sorry, users should blindly believe what the BBs say when all evidence points the other way?

I think 100% of managers would say 2-3 is completely broken or doesn't work as intended (if you don't, you're wrong, and that is a fact). Also the matter of shot blocking and a bunch of other stuff.