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season 15 Welcome

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This Post:
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168970.42 in reply to 168970.41
Date: 2/28/2011 6:11:02 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
1010
I base the analysis off of the overall team performance which has some flaws to it. Putting out 3rd best lineup against a strong team while on the road, the AI tends to sub in lesser players with a big lead, the losing team tends to fire up 3pt shots very frequently in the 4th...these things may lead away from a team's strong point and lend itself to skewing the data.

With as many data points as we have, it still tends to only skew the data mildly. Plus, lets be honest, most of the time the way that enthusiasm affects games and how we respond to good teams/home court advantage...the overall data bias is towards the ends. In other words, the best teams are probably not quite as good as the stats show and the worst teams probably aren't as bad, but the middle couple or 3 teams are what the data says they are.

I have the means...its sloppy so I don't do it...to get the specific data for every game. I suspect that I'd be able to give an even better analysis if I gathered that data. I broke down my team last season by game and one interesting thing came out of it. My defense was topnotch in d3 last season, but the best offense still shot 48%. My takeaway was: Individual matchups can significantly impact a game. The average shooting percentage against me last season from partway through the season was 32.9% ovr, 16.35% 3pt. Most games were around the 30% range.

This type of information broken out across the league with some adjustments for "expected performance" would probably make for an interesting read. A little more complicated and a good bit more time unless I could get the data into a spreadsheet format more quickly.

Maybe someday on that analysis...as for player performances...without a pbp or a better breakout of sub information...its unlikely I'll ever even consider working backwards from there.

From: Kzarik

This Post:
00
168970.43 in reply to 168970.42
Date: 2/28/2011 6:19:58 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
1010
Oh...and I should mention that rebounding figures could be REALLY accurate by the game by game method.

This Post:
00
168970.44 in reply to 168970.42
Date: 3/1/2011 10:29:52 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
178178
as for player performances...without a pbp or a better breakout of sub information...its unlikely I'll ever even consider working backwards from there.



If you had Supporter, you'd get a play by play. I have a script that I use for my players that runs through the pbp

This Post:
00
168970.45 in reply to 168970.38
Date: 3/1/2011 8:11:55 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
178178
If I knew you had a dude named Columbus Crouch on the TL (and I had the money), I would have totally bought him. What a phenomenal name!

This Post:
11
168970.46 in reply to 168970.45
Date: 3/2/2011 10:01:33 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
178178
Wow, 10 for 10 in the Cup games last night for our division, impressive! Yet again we are dominating all leagues in Cup teams remaining:

II.1 - 10
NBBA - 8
II.4 - 6
II.3 - 4
II.2 - 3

Way to go, guys!

This Post:
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168970.47 in reply to 168970.46
Date: 3/2/2011 10:42:13 AM
petersburg
III.15
Overall Posts Rated:
33
Match ups look a bit tougher this round though. I would guess next round we will lose a few.

This Post:
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168970.48 in reply to 168970.47
Date: 3/2/2011 5:15:16 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
4545
seriously - i wish petersburg won his/her last cup match. Thus ends my run as well.

Last edited by rocket.science at 3/4/2011 9:39:46 PM

This Post:
00
168970.49 in reply to 168970.41
Date: 3/5/2011 1:21:02 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
1010
Be kind to me Rocket.... I'm just trying to survive

This Post:
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168970.50 in reply to 168970.48
Date: 3/6/2011 10:10:52 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
1010
Looks like this next matchup is likely to put me out as well. 3rd time that I've made the round of 32 though so I'm not going to dismiss that!

From: kdasher

This Post:
00
168970.52 in reply to 168970.51
Date: 3/9/2011 12:33:33 AM
petersburg
III.15
Overall Posts Rated:
33
talk about a hot hand, Jay Rogers, averaging 2 points a game... 20 points on year total in league games, goes off for 28 points on 13-22 shooting against me on tuesdays game. Granger averaging 30, goes for 13 points.

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