I used princeton a lot with average skilled players (no elite skills, but also no holes) in the first few seasons of utopia and it was fine for me, so you may be right and that's why I think we need to check both sides of the spectrum (and I might do this when I get supporter in a week or 2 and I work on collecting pbps), which is why I mentioned a competitive D4 with no tankers and no bots.
Anyway, if you fix open shots the way I said, lower leagues would be largely unaffected while top players should indeed shoot better. Think about it: a D4 player is likely to face a team made up of outside players with 7-8 OD already, but that number for D1 is probably more like 17 or higher at the guards slots. So when you pit open shots against a constant rather than some illogical value created from the opponents' OD, it stands to reason that the biggest impact will be where skills are higher. In D3 and D4 there is more balance because: A) salaries don't vary much between different tactics and B) there are fewer extremes (eg. guards with the equivalent of 18 IS or players with 30 TSP more than the league average for a starter).
Using team OD to calculate the expected FG% of unguarded shots is complete and utter nonsense and if this is indeed the way it works, then it should be changed first. At the moment it's like you are double counting OD in the defense: if the shot is defended, then OD is used, if the shot is not defended (so OD failed to stop a good pass and to close in on the shooter), then OD is used to calculate some value to oppose to the offensive skills relevant for the shot. Why??? The only problem I see with this is that an offset patient would become even more broken as more unguarded shots would go in than right now (at the top).
Another thing I never did was to check if different shots have a different block %. This is another thing that is powering LI: while in the real world layups, finger rolls etc are efficient shots but also more prone to being blocked than, say, 3 pointers or jump shots, especially for shorter players. My suspicion is that in BB there is no significant difference in the probability of being blocked other than whether the defender is a big man or a guard and that layups from the guard slots may be in fact more efficient than layups the big men slots, which is counterintuitive. One thing at a time though.
I will run some numbers on boxscores later this week so we can appreciate the difference in other aspects (namely pace and most importantly possessions) between tactics.
Last edited by Lemonshine at 6/10/2020 12:09:25 PM