i think they are going to addopt the Pacers strategy, meaning that they won't put a great defender on lebron, but make sure the rest of his team gets a serious defense.
You can't stop lebron unless you double team him ( meaning someone else is open). Lebron is a too good passer to take that risk, and double teaming lebron isn't even a guaranteed succes. Hence, i'd expect them to put Leonard on Wade and Green on Lebron. Green is 3 cm shorter than Leonard, so size wouldn't make a big difference for both of them. Ofcourse, when Ginobli is playing, i reckon that the other one of the 2 will guard Lebron. altho, maybe they match up Ginobili with Lebron. would be a mismatch, but by doing so, they'd maintain their lock down on the other players.
remember, Lebron ain't like Melo or Kobe. If Melo or Kobe feel that they got an advantagous match-up, you can forget about them passing the ball. For miami to keep a high tempo, they need ball movement. So Lebron needs to keep passing too. Lebron hasn't scored more than 50 points over his entire career on 8 occasions. Despite being much better than any teammate he had in Cleveland, he never scored large ammount of points in succession.
If you consider that he 'only' scored 40+ points in 51 games over his entire career ( 9 postseason, 42 regular season), then that shows that Lebron wants everyone involved. I like that aspect of his game, but it's also his achilles heel.
So make Lebron the scoorder, shut down the rest of his team. he'll get some buckets, but he knows he needs to get teh rest of his team going too. hence, shut down the rest of the team, and you could win a game. the chances of Lebron dropping more than 40 points in a game ain't high. his stats back that up.
So if you can limit the rest of the team to 50 points combined and for the good sake of it, we'll say that lebron drops 40 points a night. That is 90 points per game. Spurs could get that total. So do the match. double team lebron, let his teammates get involved, or make sure you've got lock down defense on his teammates, while you have a mismatch at the SF spot.
That is why i reckon that Leonard will defense Wade instead of Lebron.
for the record: i got my numbers here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_career_achievements_...just providing the link to back em up ;)
The Heat are unstoppable when all the players have chances to contribute. Hence, you should roll the dice and force the guy who's getting them involved into becoming a scorer.