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Points per 100 shots???

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241922.5 in reply to 241922.4
Date: 5/21/2013 11:32:59 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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Ok but that doesn't answer the original question where does the 131.9 come from? I did the calculation for the game and it is no where near 131.9

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241922.6 in reply to 241922.5
Date: 5/21/2013 11:34:58 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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131.9 is his expected point output for 100 shots with your lineup against his with everything (home court, enthusiasm, GS, effort, skills) taken into account.

Last edited by Kumiko (CAN U21) at 5/21/2013 11:35:10 PM

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241922.7 in reply to 241922.6
Date: 5/21/2013 11:36:54 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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Gotcha so its some mystery calculation from a simulation of a simulated game.

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241922.8 in reply to 241922.7
Date: 5/22/2013 12:18:54 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
774774
More or less. Think of it as a period of time where the guy would be able to put up 100 shots, and that's how many points you would expect him to get. The 48 minutes and 19 shots in your 1 game today are a portion of that. He slightly underperformed points-wise.

Last edited by Kumiko (CAN U21) at 5/22/2013 12:20:07 AM

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241922.9 in reply to 241922.8
Date: 5/22/2013 4:10:29 AM
No Good News
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How do you think, what influences that underperformance? Maybe stamina of players in that particular position, or offensive flow, or anything else?

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241922.10 in reply to 241922.9
Date: 5/22/2013 5:44:41 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
419419
Think of this scenario. Lebron James drives to the hoop and passes to open Ray Allen in the 3pt lane 10 times. Assuming that Ray Allen has 40% from 3pt range, he is expected to score 4 times out of ten. Meaning his p.p. 100 would be 120. He may hit 1 3pt, 10 3pts, or even none. Still his p.p. 100 would be 120.

Underperformance may be affected by experience, stamina or pure luck.

From: GM-hrudey

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241922.11 in reply to 241922.9
Date: 5/22/2013 10:09:36 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
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How do you think, what influences that underperformance? Maybe stamina of players in that particular position, or offensive flow, or anything else?


I think there's something random involved with it - I've had a game where I had a player estimated at 85.6 PP100 ended up scoring two points on 11 shots and my PF position was expected to get 74.3 but the starter went 0-8 and the backup somehow went 2-4, for a total of five points. (55958354)


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241922.12 in reply to 241922.9
Date: 5/22/2013 10:22:16 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
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How do you think, what influences that underperformance? Maybe stamina of players in that particular position, or offensive flow, or anything else?


I think it's just random. Players have good shooting nights and bad shooting nights.

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241922.13 in reply to 241922.12
Date: 5/22/2013 10:38:02 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
573573
I've always heard that the PP100 value is the quality of shots a player gets, before factoring in the randomness of each actual result of the game engine "roll"

So, if a guy had a particular PP100, then over hundreds or thousands of attempts, he'd reach that PP100. But, when there more likely just 10-25 attempts, by chance he could do better or worse.

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241922.14 in reply to 241922.9
Date: 5/22/2013 11:10:03 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
774774
Since that player was in the game for 48 minutes straight, perhaps stamina influenced it. Then again, I don't know if that was taken into account when the PP100 was made knowing that player was pegged to play the whole game at that position. Which, I think it should. Therefore, I'd go with randomness as well.

Flipping a coin should be 50/50 out of 100 times, but if I said I just wanted the results of flips 63 to 72, it could be 5/5 or anywhere from 10/0 to 0/10. Such is the case out of 19 shots out of the 100 for PP100.

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241922.15 in reply to 241922.13
Date: 5/22/2013 11:26:06 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
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I've always heard that the PP100 value is the quality of shots a player gets, before factoring in the randomness of each actual result of the game engine "roll"



Correct. The points per shot are before the random factor. I was commenting on the actual shooting results of the players during the game as being random.