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Season 60 Preview
Well, here's the unofficial, official welcome to those of us who now reside in Div. III.11. I try to do this little introductory post before the season starts with some predictions and thoughts on the league, generally making myself look like an ass for the entertainment of the other 15 managers. A hearty welcome (again) to all the newcomers - hopefully we'll have an entertaining and unpredictable season. Looking at things as we get started, I'm sure that will be the case.

Last season I predicted Philly Dribble would win it all, but hampered by two key injuries in the Big 8 Conference Semi-Finals in their win over Carolina let San Dominica Warriors slip past them only to lose to The Ashkickers in three games. Their manager, Tylormade, flipped me one last bird for all the times I underestimated his squad in my power rankings (hey, man, you can't argue with the logic of facts based on very sophisticated calculations of numbers!). This season brings four new teams to the Great 8 and two to the Big 8. And now, for my disclaimer:

As always (or at least for the last few seasons), these predictions are based on current salary statistics for the league. This season, I've slightly modified it, (again). Last season, I modified my points assignment because I think the value of bench play ends up helping push teams over the top, so I calculated it by total salaries, Top 5, and 6-10 salaries are equally weighted and then, Top 8, and Top 10, and average salary rankings are weighted equally. I totaled those ranking position points up and divide by the number of categories gathered to give me my ranking system.

This season, however, I've measured each salary against the average for each category and then assigned a point value based on that. For example for Total Salary it breaks down like this for teams $100k over the league total average and for teams $100k less the league total average:

Team Total Salary > League Total Salary Average+100,000 = 60 Points
Team Total Salary +100,000 < League Total Salary Average = 0 Points

We'll use this season's current salaries as examples:
- Philly Dribble currently has a total salary number of $345,752, which is just over the league wide average of $244,417, so in that category they score 60 points.
- On the opposite end of the spectrum is Cincinnati Slammers, whose current total salaries are $135,776 - when we add another $100k to that, they're still less than the league average, so they score 0 points.

The breakdown for each category is similar to this with some slight modifications based on the variances from the averages for each category. This season I'm weighting Total Salary and Top 6-10 (bench play) the highest (range from 0-60 points), while Top 5 and Top 8 are 2nd tiered (0-30 points) and Top 10 is the lowest tier (0-15 points). Add those five category point totals and then divide by five and you have your rankings. All ties are broken by Top 6-10 rank.

If you're curious, I can provide the exact calculations, but I figure not everyone's as nerdy or interested as me so I won't bore you any more with this.

My usual disclaimer: I'm not a scientist, but I am a dork who can't get enough of this dumb game, thus my predictions. Before the ranking predictions, here are some of the highlights and lowlights of our league.

Current League Leaders in Salary
1. Philly Dribble - $345,752. They're sitting at 17 players, which causes them to rank only 6th in average salary, but those of us who are too familiar with them know that doesn't mean a thing.
2. Linndale - $311,151 - The only move Linndale's made so far is to bring in $14k SG Trenton Tovar who is only 22-years old and scored 13 points in 27 minutes in his first scrimmage this week. Lutz was listed on the transfer list and the old man, 40-year-old Pestana is currently listed, but few, if any teams are thinking about kicking the tires on the old PG at $100k transfer price.
3. Miami Cleo - $298,301 - 15 rostered players with none listed for sale. Interestingly, last season's #3 overall total salaried team (The Ashkickers) were right around this same mark and hadn't made any moves before going on to dominate and win the finals.

In the division, teams average $240k in salary, which is up 27k from last season. This season seven teams are averaging less than that, three of which average MUCH less than that. I'm sure there will be lots of changes to this and the rest of these categories over the course of the first few weeks.

Current League Leaders in Starting 5
These might not be the actual starting 5 numbers, but actually just the highest 5 paid player salary totals from each team.
1. Philly Dribble - $220k - 64% of their total salaries
2. The White Walkers - $211k - 81%
3. Miami Cleo - $210k - 70%

Overall, the 16 teams average $164k (splitting the difference between last season and the season before that which was $184k) for top 5 paid players with 5 teams averaging more than $200k and three teams averaging less than $115k.

Current League Leaders in Assumed Top Bench Players (Top 6-10)
1. San Dominica Warriors - $91k ($18.2k per player)
2. Linndale - $88.8k ($17.76k per player)
3. Philly Dribble - $88.1k ($17.6k per player)

As I'm writing this, 209's MostWanted two transfer listed players haven't sold yet, but there are bids on them (by the time I post this, they might already be sold), so I took that into account in the final numbers. Before those two were going to sell, 209's sat at the top of this list and that drastically altered the final preseason rankings, which are up next!

Season 60 Final Ranking Predictions
Once again, these rankings are based on salaries, with total salary and 6-10 players weighted highest, then a notch below that ranks Top 5 & Top 8, followed by Top 10. Feel free to flip me the bird me if you're angry. And don't forget, these salary numbers will most definitely change, but my ability incorrectly predict these things never will!

16. Flamin' Flamingos - I doubt this will last as they've recently sold three players for a total of $800k+ dropping nearly $50k in salary. I'd guess the veteran manager ascent has some plans to add to the squad with only nine players currently rostered.

15. Cincinnati Slammers - Tukas is sporting 17 players for by far the lowest average salary per player, coming in at just under $8k. No moves made as of this post, but they would have to be pretty significant to get to a competitive state.

14. STG on MCU - I swear I'm not just hating on the newcomers here. STG sports a higher salaried crew than the aforementioned two, but only by $20k. And that's after dropping $640k on $30k salary 25-year-old PG Matthew Marsh. They do have a couple of players transfer listed.

13. 209's MostWanted - 209's sale dropped them from a top 5 spot in these rankings all the way down here. And they're only getting (at this writing) $40k for players with a combined age of 71 years. They're no rookie, so I'm guessing they've got some plans to be competitive. Overall, they should be OK, but time will tell.

11. The Beer Bellys - Yes, I did skip #12. That's because these next two teams are nearly identical in salaries. thatguy is retooling and hoping to hang around - we'll see if the Keg is up for that or if he'll see a revolt!

11. Fondy Cardinals - Another newcomer near the bottom, I know, I know, but Fondy's been quite active on the transfer list. Currently only $1,500ish separates The Bellies from the Cards. But Fondy's sold off $85k worth of salary to reel in over $1 million in spending cash. We'll see how they use it.

10. Carolina Rebels - This is going to get me in trouble. Just like with The Ashkickers, I haven't learned my lesson. In looking at how the points got distributed, they scored 20, 5, 5, 3, & 10 points in each category, getting punished for being right at or near the average (either over or under). But that's what makes these predictions fun: BEING LOUD WRONG.

9. Żubr Białystok - whitestok's group suffers a similar fate as Carolina, but they're definitely not worth ignoring. All in all, there are 8 teams that span from almost $240k-$280k in salary - that's really not a lot, so this whole mess from #10-#4 could be a traffic jam of craziness.

Last edited by Baine at 2/10/2023 6:31:13 PM

Season 60 Final Ranking Predictions - Continued
8. Lion Rebels - Eliciting HIGH DOUBT on this one. My team hasn't improved that drastically - I'm still probably another year away, so I'll be playing just to not make my fans revolt and trying to avoid relegation. I'll bet I finish 13th or something like that.

7. The White Walkers - The Night King has been Wheeling and Dealing this week, here to spend money and kick ass and he's all out of money. He brought in Victor Papageorgiou ($62k) for a staggering $2.8 million but made up for it by selling off rookie Stanford Roach for a solid $1.7 mil. All in all he's made 8 transactions just this week, bringing on 5 new players and selling three.

6. Hustlas - I don't know how Reece is doing it, but he's standing pat and not making any moves so far (though he has transfer listed a couple players who haven't sold). He's made a grand total of 296 transfers in his BB career, but surprisingly none in almost a month of real life. I'm sure that will change as he too is a Wheeler and a Dealer.

5. San Dominica Warriors - Last season I had a team that ended up relegating in this spot. I doubt that will be the case with Coach Stephenson's team. With their league leading bench, they'll be stout. I'm not certain how much they've improved this season from last, but they haven't made any transactions. I guess we'll find out!

4. Tasty Tardsicles - With just 11 players rostered, they're still 5th in total salaries. They've got a solid top 5 and I'm sure will be tough to beat. But be forewarned! I had my own Lion Rebels listed at 4th before last season and ended up 7-15.

3. Miami Cleo - Miami's got some great D, so I'm sure they'll be in the mix at the top, but by the points system, there's a bit of a gap between #3 and the top two spots. Ever difficult, however, they'll hold their own and be fighting to get to the finals.

2. Linndale - I hope this is a curse. They're top two in every category except for Top 5, in which they're ranked 4th. That could change if Ubaldo Pestana sells, but he's fading, and probably pretty quickly, so I don't know that his $18k salary is going to belie the truth for much longer about his skills.

1. Philly Dribble - Same story as last year - Phils_Wings at the top. Hopefully injury doesn't plague them again - while they lost 5 games before the playoffs last season, the way things are shaping up, I'll be pretty surprised (barring significant salary changes) if they lose more than one this season.

Conference Standings
Here's how the conferences break down based on those rankings
Big 8
1. Philly Dribble
2. Linndale
3. San Dominica
4. Lion Rebels
5. Carolina Rebels
6. Fondy Cardinals
7. 209's MostWanted
8. Flamin' Flamingos

Great 8
1. Miami Cleo
2. Tasty Tardsicles
3. Hustlas
4. The White Walkers
5. Żubr Białystok
6. The Beer Bellys
7. STG on MCU
8. Cincinnati Slammers

Playoff/Relegation Predictions
Great 8 Playoffs
The White Walkers vs. Miami Cleo (upset!)
Hustlas vs. Tasty Tardsicles

Big 8 Playoffs
Lion Rebels vs. Philly Dribble
San Dominica vs. Linndale

Great 8 Semi-Final Matchup
The White Walkers vs. Tasty Tardsicles

Big 8 Semi-Final Matchup
San Dominica vs. Philly Dribble

Relegation Matchups
Carolina Rebels over STG on MCU in two
209's MostWanted over Żubr Białystok in three
Fondy Cardinals over The Beer Bellys in three

Season 58 Championship
Philly Dribble over Tasty Tardsicles in three.

And so, there you have it! Good luck this season and may the best team prove me wrong!

Final programming note: almost all of my quips and schticks are tongue in cheek meant to have a little fun.

Last edited by Baine at 2/10/2023 6:30:56 PM

And there goes Flamingos obliterating my preseason rankings!
;)

...inside the Linndale locker room, pre game...

“Defend, rebound, and take care of the basketball.” Pio figured it was a young group and he’d do well to set the tone and expectations immediately. “I want you to be able to defend your position well, and then be able to defend another position. Defensively, we’re not good enough. Rebound. We have to be able to go and get the basketball. The basketball belongs to us. Do NOT let the other team have it. If you go get the basketball, the other team can’t score and it gives us more chances to score. Take care of the basketball. I HATE turnovers on offense. I love causing turnovers on defense. It’s OUR basketball. Protect it.”

Pio looked around the locker room. Ubaldo Pestana was the only player not here, and he logged into the meeting on the team’s videoconferencing platform. He was away due to a personal matter. Everyone looked alert and attentive. That was good; there had been times he remembers from his playing days where that wasn’t always the case. Those players never lasted long.

“Gentlemen, we expect to make the playoffs. That is our expectation. That is ALWAYS the expectation here. Defend, rebound, and take care of the basketball. If you do that, no one will want to play you in the postseason.”

“Now, on to tonight’s opponent. It’s going to be a big ask, but we have to find a way to control Armstead. If he has a big game, we lose. Don't let him gp for 40 points 20 rebounds on us, or some ridiculous performance,and make him work for what he gets. You all know what the game plan is. Reese, be ready. I expect nice things from you. Reynolds, watch carefully, ask questions, and when your number is called, put in the work. Datler, just keep grinding. Shooter, 15 off the bench tonight?”

“Nope. 20, Coach.” Trenton Tovar had a lot of confidence. Sometimes, too much.

“Just don’t let that confidence turn to cockiness. This is a strong defensive league and you’re not a finished offensive player. And if you don’t play defense, you won’t play here. Got it?” Pio wanted to make sure Shooter as he called him remembered to get back on defense. My veterans, you know what I expect. Lead the way. Those who don't follow better be leading. Those who do neither, goodbye."

“Got it.”

“Good. Team, show me who you are. I’ll worry about getting you to be who you want to be. What do you want to be?”

“Champions.” Pio thought that was unenthusiastic and quite muted.

“Make them hear you out in the arena. What do you want to be? Say it like you mean it!”

“CHAMPIONS!!!”

“Now go show me what that looks like!"

"I told you guys to show me what champions look like. They don't look like what you showed out there at all. There was no defense. No rebounding. You didn't start making shots until the last quarter. My point guard had as many assists as turnovers. Do you understand we were not PLAYING THE CHAMPIONS?!? WE WERE NOT PLAYING SOMEONE WE WANT TO SEE AS CHAMPIONS!!! WE PLAY SO WE CAN WIN AMD BE CHAMPIONS!!!! THIS IS UNACCEPTABLE!!!!" Pio Reina was a very unhappy man.

"You know we have work to do. Go to work. I know we've got a young team, but these are the losses that keep you out of the playoffs. The guys we needed to play well did not. You know who did? The bench, Specifically Paulie, Reese, and Nick. Good job, now do it again. Starters and reserves, those are the only 3 players I am pleased with. The rest of you guys have some soul searching to do. You better do it fast; if you don't come ready to work it's gonna be a long, long season. And I'm not going to be a nice guy."

<3

I will take the underseeding as motivation =]

I would like to add that we managed to upset our way into the
Final 64 of the U.S.A Cup last season and we are hoping to
ride off of that success. *fingers crossed*
The past few seasons I wasn't on the game much, so I got relegated and sat in D.4 for a while but I'm interested again thanks to a good run in the Cup in season 59.

I see this is a pretty solid division...
I'm hoping I put the right pieces together to stick around for a bit ;]

Last edited by ascent at 2/12/2023 1:55:59 AM

Day 1 (Saturday 11 February 2023) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
Philly Dribble 134 - 209’s MostWanted 139
San Dominica Warriors 89 - Flamin' Flamingos 90
Linndale 119 - Lion Rebels 128
Fondy Cardinals 86 - Carolina Rebels 113
Miami Cleo 82 - Tasty Tardsicles 89
The White Walkers 93 - Hustlas 80
Cincinnati Slammers 87 - STG on MCU 89
The Beer Bellys 95 - Żubr Białystok 121

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 139 : 209’s MostWanted
Rebounds : 78 : 209’s MostWanted
Assists : 32 : Carolina Rebels
Steals : 12 : Linndale
Block Shots : 8 : Flamin' Flamingos

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 54 : A. Ziółkowski (209’s MostWanted)
Rebounds : 25 : H. Espinosa (Carolina Rebels)
Assists : 9 : J. Glicas (Philly Dribble), D. Allen (Carolina Rebels), É. Blanchet (San Dominica Warriors), B. Anderson (Flamin' Flamingos)
Steals : 5 : À. Casadevall (STG on MCU), V. Ögretmen (The White Walkers)
Block Shots : 4 : S. Aldino (Flamin' Flamingos)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : M. Velasco (Philly Dribble) (21 Points, 7 Rebounds, 5 Assists, 2 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 28
Shooting Guard : A. Ziółkowski (209’s MostWanted) (54 Points, 3 Rebounds, 6 Assists, 2 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 44
Small Forward : J. Glicas (Philly Dribble) (28 Points, 4 Rebounds, 9 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots), G. Azheli (209’s MostWanted) (30 Points, 11 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 0 Steals, 1 Block Shots), V. Papageorgiou (The White Walkers) (24 Points, 10 Rebounds, 2 Assists, 0 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 27
Power Forward : I. Homs (The Beer Bellys) (31 Points, 18 Rebounds, 6 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 48
Center : T. Armstead (Lion Rebels) (25 Points, 13 Rebounds, 5 Assists, 0 Steals, 3 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 40

MVP of the evening
I. Homs (The Beer Bellys) (31 Points, 18 Rebounds, 6 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 48

The bad performance of the evening
J. Esposito (Hustlas) (18 Points, 5 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -8

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : D. Parent (Lion Rebels) : 6 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : P. Huddleston (Philly Dribble), M. Woesler (Philly Dribble) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : G. Locus (Miami Cleo), S. Bynum (Tasty Tardsicles), S. Hollins (Lion Rebels), N. Hidasi (Żubr Białystok), S. Hatch (Żubr Białystok), P. Stevens (Cincinnati Slammers) : 48 Minutes

The shooter : A. Ziółkowski (209’s MostWanted) : 8 Three points

The best performer : T. Armstead (Lion Rebels) : Rating : 16.5

The worst performer : T. Lang (Fondy Cardinals) : Rating : 4.0

Initial Transfer Report
With one game in the books and seven players still on the transfer list, including three players with at least $10k salary (but not more than $18k), I thought it would be interesting to look at the transfer activity for our league going back to the 2nd of February (which was technically before Season 59 finished up, but I included those because they were transfers by teams not in the finals - and regardless, they wouldn't take effect until this season).

We've had 29 transfers amongst 9 teams, wich The White Walkers leading the pack making 9 transfers in total. All told from 16 transfers out, teams have made a total of $4,297,669, including 18-year-old rookie Stanford Roach going for a cool $1.7 mil. On the flipside, with only 13 new players coming in, teams have spent a combined $8,197,700. What's really crazy is in only two transactions (Tasty's $1.3 mil purchase of Chik Wui Kwong and Walkers $2.8 mil purchase of Victor Papageorgiou), we nearly matched the amount of money brought into teams via transfer sales.

On the salary side of things, we sold off $270k in total salary and brought in $365k in three less players. Victor and Chik are the big money targets, along with 209's purchase this weekend of $56k Tian Rumin, and The White Walkers other side is $47k Roberts Dargels.

My favorite transfers, though, have been The Night King's three for three deal, bringing in two 18-year-olds and a 22-year-old each with salaries under $1000 to fill out their bench play. That means that players 6, 7, and 8 on their roster (in terms of salary) make up 97% of their 6-10 roster salaries.

If these transfers had all gone through before the first game, here is how the preseason rankings would've ended up:

1. Tasty Tardsickles (previously #4)
2. Philly Dribble (#1)
3. Linndale (#2)
4. Miami Cleo (#3)
5. San Dominica Warriors (#5)
6. The White Walkers (#7)
7. Hustlas (#6)
8. Lion Rebels (#8)
9. Żubr Białystok (#9)
10. 209's MostWanted (#13)
11. Carolina Rebels (#10)
12. Fondy Cardinals & Beer Bellys (#'s 11)
14. Flamin' Flamingos (#16)
15. STG on MCU (#14)
16. Cincinnati Slammers (#15)

I expect these will shift a little bit more, but I won't be updating the rankings. Obviously, biggest take away is that Tasty jumped to the top of the pack thanks to their investment in Chik Wui Kwong and 209's making a push up to the middle of the pack by replacing two players making $56k with one.

Good luck on Tuesday - Week One Power Rankings will be out Thursday or Friday!