did you think the most clever is the one who fall back first, and then make the adjustment to catch the opponent, short before the finish so that he didn't get an wrong tactic indikator which gives him a sign to react. Or did you think it is smart, damn i am in front, now i had to change my d and offense, because maybe my opponent change it.
you see how much fun and variation such an option brings. you totally got it right: First of all you will have to scout opponents to see how they usually play. Then you anticipate their moves, which means: you can not be sure they will exactly play in the same way against you, because they might fear that you scouted them and have made adjustments to beat them. So you anticipate each others moves.
A team which is behind, still has to make up the difference. For example if the difference is 15 to 20 points, it will still be difficult to catch up, you might need an entire quarter or more for that even with a favourable tactic, if teams have equal strengths. And then again eventually, you have foreseen in a tactic such as "if -after 35 minutes-, team -up by 15 points-, switch to -3/2 zone- in defense and -patient- in offense". Which would eat up time. You will have to play around with that then, but it is a lot of fun to see if you were able to anticipate correctly, or if you'd been totally predictable.
In the end it will in 90 % of the cases be still the stronger team, who wins. Only if you got totally owned by all your tactical decisions your weaker opponent would have a slight chance of winning. You should again be aware, I am not talking about letting league 4 teams win against league 2 or 1 teams. tactical cleverness is interesting when equal teams meet each other. A weaker team has always a certain disadvantage because of the missing skills to win against a better team, even in a perfectly favourable tactical set up. The weaker team will still make less shots/ defend worse than a good or great team. A weak team would not be able to wipe out a much better team with just the right tactics.