Most of the managers in higher division are not targeting players on the TL under 60k except as backups. If there is not a good supply of higher salary players, the price will increase drastically. If they can't find a player under 60k on the TL, they will buy the next best option which will drive the price up of the 30k-60k salary players that most DIII managers use as the starters. The chain reaction continues down the supply curve screwing the lower, inexperienced managers that were suppose to be helped.
What we don't know is if the increase in supply of players under 60k will be able to counteract the increase in demand. In addition, some type of hoarders taxes could possible result in hundreds of millions of TL spending as hoarders scramble to buy players before the tax goes into effect and an increase in the promotion bonus will add to that spending as well. More spending meets more competition for players, and higher prices.
Yes and no....
Sure it screws them if they come in and try to instantly buy a team, but we know from years past new players would come in, buy 100K a week salary guys for their cup games, turn and sell them, etc. or use them until they drive themselves bankrupt.
I think it is new managers best interests to learn how to manage a team, managing a team consists of not just managing money, but also scouting players, developing players, and building a team.
if buying a team was all it took to win then Golden State shouldn't have won last year. But Golden State.... (what a concept), trained and developed several of their key players, managed their money, and made
smart free agent moves where they got the players
they wanted for a
price they felt was fair.
Supply and Demand:
Demand only drives prices up if people keep paying the ridiculous prices.... ultimately demand goes down to a certain price point to maximize profit.
Being that most people play look inside (still), the player builds really really are not that drastically different from each other. I myself personally, on any of my stints here since Season 18, have never had a problem of finding a player that fit what I wanted that I couldn't eventually find at the price that I was willing to pay. Even now when I do a player search of players I have trained in the past that fall into the TSP >60 salary <60,000 range, where this "shortage of players, and inflation of prices, etc. is supposed to happen, that were retired because
NOBODY BOUGHT THEM. Frankly, until there are 0 players in that range making way through to retirement now with all the other FAs to compete against, I don't see it as being a problem when its then the only range of players from FA.
As it stands now, Nothing is set in stone.
taxing the rich, also doesn't necessarily change things. In professional Baseball they have had the luxury tax for quite a while now... (starting in 2003 when ONLY the Yankees had to pay), Even the NBA has had a luxury tax. Frankly, it never hurt any of those teams from still being competitive and winning.
The better question to me (in my opinion) is not "how high will the tax be" but "what happens to the taxed money" does it just disappear completely? Does it get re-distributed to bad teams in lower leagues? Does it go to feed starving ex-ghana NT players? I don't know.