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Now that I've had time to think about it for a little longer, it doesn't matter what defense you run against outside offenses because they're hopelessly broken.

(90486373)

The fact that I lost doesn't bother me much. But the fact that yet again, a position where there was a 114.9 PP100 predicted had a starter go 1-11 from three (and 4-18 overall) and the backup go 1-2 (4-7 overall). This is not at all an outlier, unfortunately, and of course yet again it's a PF shutting down an outside shooter. I need to take the time sometime and go through and log all the times where I was running Princeton and the SG would be calculated to have 90 or 100 PP100 and put up a turdtastic day like this, if only so we can at least have it documented somewhere.

Never? I counted at least 16 full games (46-48 minutes) played at PG in that guy's entire career. He's got OD. His rating is also inflated by virtue of that team playing with bigger effort. All in all I'd say that such rotten shooting isn't that surprising.

EDIT: it's actually 23 whole games at PG in total. I doubt many of these training sessions went towards PA. There's also the fact that the winning team played at home.

If that level of OD (maybe 13-14?) is enough to hold a guy who has 14 JR to less than 10% from beyond the arc, I think that sums up my point.

(And if his OD really was that good, my SF wouldn't have been projected to have 114.9 PP100, although of course it might just be that PP100 is broken and outside shooting really is working as intended, which is to say not at all).

But hrudey, aren't you neglecting the fact your guys played against both HCA and more effort?

I mean, I never paid attention to PP100 and as far as I know this indicator might be broken as hell and not really useful. Game ratings, for instance, for SFs who get 13.5 with 35 minutes played do kind of indicate that he's quite a solid outside defender (here I'm going off my own observations of different guys at the SF spot) Though, I do think your SG had a really horrible night and that this is something to wonder at given the guy who guarded him.

If this was a single, outlier type game, sure, it would make sense that once in a blue moon a guy could shoot less than 10% against a defender who at the very best could be maybe at the same OD level as his outside shooting. But I've run enough outside offense and seen it happen way too frequently at this point to be able to point to that. I had thought it was related to Princeton as I saw it happen a lot more there, but now that it's happening in Motion (and I've seen it happen with the SG at C patient as well), I'm out of ideas.

I don't think it's HCA/effort related, at least in terms of that. I can chalk up the fact that they pulled the game out later to that, and maybe some increase of the effectiveness of defense and rebounding.

Anyway, I think I really do need to finally go through my games and start logging the incidence of games where someone shoots insanely low like this (or the rarer and happier ones where a guy goes like 8-9 from outside when he had no business doing so).