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The odds of you getting one of the two are better than this. First of all, the team drafting first would have to select one of the two players which is 23/24, the the team drafting second would have to select the other at a ratio of 1/47 or 97.9 percent.

The odds of you getting one of the two are better than this. First of all, the team drafting first would have to select one of the two players which is 23/24, the the team drafting second would have to select the other at a ratio of 1/47 or 97.9 percent.

i also though that his calculation is wrong, but if you correct him do it right ;)

And the calculation is like that:

1- 1/48 - 1/47 and the result is nearly the same then posted from him.

Last edited by CrazyEye at 6/19/2010 1:03:25 PM

????

The first one would have two shots in 48 to get one of his selections, because the op listed two players he is looking at which would be 2 chances in 48 or a ratio of 23/24. That means the first pick has a 95.8% chance of not selecting one of the two guys the op is looking to select. That has to happen first, then the team drafting two would need to select the other draftee at a 1 chance in 47 so there is a 97.9% chance of that not happening. Now the odds of the two happening in conjunction with each other increases astronomically. So Crazyeye, before you go correcting someone, make sure they are wrong

You may also need to take in to account the chance that even if someone else scouted those 2 players, what is the chance of them picking it :P
The manager might be stupid and not understand the ratings. :P
Or the manager might be inactive or just forget to submit the rankings. :P
Or maybe the manager scouts 10 guys with 5 star skills and 5 star potential and 18 years old :P

The first one would have two shots in 48 to get one of his selections, because the op listed two players he is looking at which would be 2 chances in 48 or a ratio of 23/24. That means the first pick has a 95.8% chance of not selecting one of the two guys the op is looking to select.

so you are believing seriously that he would draft two players, before the third team get his first draft pick? I was pretty sure, he will draft hust his number 1, which makes it to a 1/48 chanche.

That means the first pick has a 95.8% chance of not selecting one of the two guys the op is looking to select. That has to happen first, then the team drafting two would need to select the other draftee at a 1 chance in 47 so there is a 97.9% chance of that not happening

now it becomes more curious, you say that the first draft will get the first draft of the thread opener in 4,2% of the cases, but when the third team draft his number one pick would be drafted just in 2,1% of the cases. Did he come back after he was drafted?
So the 1/47 is in reality a negativ value, which free the player in 50% of the cases from team one :)

So Crazyeye, before you go correcting someone, make sure they are wrong :)

i am, you are?

The title of the post says drafting third with two bots ahead of me.

1. BOT
2. BOT
3. OP

If there are two guys the OP likes in this draft, the BOT team drafting one has a 2 in 48 chance of drafting one of those guys. Should the #1 team in this draft select one of the two players the OP likes, then the number two team would have to select the other for him to not get one of the two players the OP wants. Where are you getting coming back after drafted? Clearly you are not understanding the question posted or the answer given.

What are the odds the team drafting one selects one of the TWO players the OP wants? 4.2%

What are the odds the team selecting two snags one of the two players the OP wants should the team drafting one not select one? 4.3%

What are the odds the team selecting two selects the other player the OP wants if the team drafting one selects one of the two players the OP wants? 2.1%

The chance that both players the OP wants, are selected by the two BOT teams ahead of him in the draft in which the title of the thread says he is drafting third? 1 in 1,128 or less than a tenth of a percent.

edit for typo, try to keep this as easy for you to understand as possible

Last edited by Yuck at 6/19/2010 3:57:04 PM

If there are two guys the OP likes in this draft, the BOT team drafting one has a 2 in 48 chance of drafting one of those guys. Should the #1 team in this draft select one of the two players the OP likes, then the number two team would have to select the other for him to not get one of the two players the OP wants. Where are you getting coming back after drafted? Clearly you are not understanding the question posted or the answer given.

his main question was about getting his first pick, and you replied to a post who calculates the chanche for the first pick and said he is wrong, and now you want to answer his question in () ;) So obviously i missed the point, where you changed the topic.
ANd don't get back to it, in your explanation, sorry for this^^

Edit: after reading it again it should have bin clear for me, big sorry. The first post wasn't even corecting for the first answer, and stated the second one.


Last edited by CrazyEye at 6/19/2010 4:59:01 PM