You were off, but I think the assumption still works. He's basically guaranteed to win whichever game he goes PO CT on, and so the question is which of the other 2 games he wants to win. The fact is that if he goes PO Normal in the first game, and loses, he can go PO CT in game 2, guarantee a win, and then, assuming his opponent already blew his enthusiasm by going PO CT in either or both of the first 2 games, go PO CT in game 3 and have basically a straight-up (enthusiasm wise) matchup against a team that he's superior to.
If you win game 1, I would go normal again in game 2, which would either be a win, or if it's a loss, build up your enthusiasm even more for a game 3 blowout.