So as you can see, this is a complicated system of interconnected "vessels", and aside from having to be kept in balance, it is also highly cyclical.
Ok, this is the point upon which we agree. Despite your superior experience, I still think supply-demand explains much of the pricing action I have witnessed.
Perhaps I am wrong in using myself as a model, but I find myself at the start of the season with a relatively set squad, with turkeys dumped unceremoniously, including role playing draftees and veterans who no longer fit into my plans. When I placed such players on the market in weeks, say 1 to 3, the offers were insulting, certainly dismal.
But as the season has progressed, my view of my team has changed. Perhaps it is the fact my strongest competitors are strong inside, or press, or i find i have to greatly increase the size of my stadium to stay competitive. In my case, I have also scrimmaged against some Div. III teams and their 3rd string has clobbered my starters. Yikes. Anyway, I now return to the TL with pretty specific needs that MUST be filled (my PF must be able to rebound, or I need a C that can handle the ball) -- and I haven't had a problem with injuries this season, but I can imagine bad luck can strike anyone anytime, and that could urgency to finding replacements. Others, I imagine, are in much the same way. We teams with these needs or bad luck then go to the TL seeking help. Bidding commences -- and goes through the roof.
Based on my first season, I see something of an arc -- first weeks low demand, low prices; prices are now ascending, rapidly in some cases; and around playoff time it should start dropping. I keep a lean squad -- if a player is on my team, he plays -- and so I can not figure out how, if I am correct, to buy cheap but sell dear.
Of course, your points are valid, but I can still clearly remember what it was like with that first budget -- I had no idea how anyone could afford a 10,000 a week person, much less a player that surpassed my entire budget. But the flip side of that is that I was not the one bidding up prices. With experience, now I can recognize value better. With your experience, I will be even more discerning. The trouble is, you Wise Men all bid against each other, under circumstances I outlined above, raising the prices for the rest of us schlubs.