Players with terrible JR will still shoot reasonably compared to elite JR, especially if they have JS. If elite shoot 0.250 and players with 7/3 shoot 0.100, then it's not like comparing Mutombo to Reggie Miller or Drummond to Curry. This player
(37910064) had 5/5 JS/JR, is a PG and he faced D2 level OD most of his career (so likely around 15 OD, maybe more) and he's shooting 0.113 from 3 for his career.
It's fine for such a player to shoot 11%, what is not fine is for a 20/20 player to shoot 25%. That's 30 skill points difference in JS and JR alone.
Let them shoot against normalised defense on open shots: the 5/5 guy will still shoot 11%, the 20% guy will shoot 35%. Also please think about what that 10% bump in 3FG% means: if that player shoots 6 threes per game (which is high by BB standards), then 10% translates into less than 2 points. Do this for 2 players and it's 3.6 points. Even if the overall increase is 5 or 6 points (which would be actually very significant) it will be fine, as long as elite shooting is needed for it (eg. 36 skill points in JS/JR for example).
This GE has a fundamental problem with flow also: guarded and unguarded shots are not statistically different in terms of FG%. What seems likely to me is that flow has a larger impact on shot selection and distance, than on the actual FG% (by way of creating more open shots). In other terms flow just offset the OD and ID ability of the defense to push the offense into bad spots, but the usefulness may end right there. This is consistent with the notion that team OD defends open shots because team OD is largely determined by SG/PG and a bit less by SF OD, so after the shot and all the actors are determined, open and guarded shots may end up being evaluated by checking the shooter offensive values against similar defensive values whether he's guarded or not.
Last edited by Lemonshine at 6/12/2020 8:00:59 AM