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i ask it a second time, how i achieved that work or how big is the sample?

As for the potential distribution, it was evaluated on a pool of little more than 100 players.
I feel quite confident with that however, because even after taking into account 50 or so players, the shape of the distribution was already well defined; the rest of the players only confirmed that.
Even without a methodical statistical test, I don't expect the real distribution to be significantly different from the one I posted.

The potential vs. star rating average, however, is little more than a guess. Not only is it more elaborate than a simple distribution, it is also based on a pool of 44 players.
It seems to be accurate enough, however. There's one guy, for example, who posted his result based on 14 players scouted twice. Here are the numbers he gave:

1 - 1 (2 players)
2 - 2.25 (4)
3 - 2.5 (4)
4 - 2.5 (2)
5 - 3 (2)

As you can see, it's not that far from the final results, and it does show a tendency even with so few players.

Actually, it would also be very interesting to evaluate the distribution of star ratings as well, because that would allow us to cross-check the results of all three calculations.
If you know the distribution of star ratings, the distribution of potentials, and the average potential vs. rating, you have three correlated elements that you can check for consistency.

As for the potential distribution, it was evaluated on a pool of little more than 100 players.

Even with 100 players, there must have been very few with 5 ball potential, no? Well, I am guessing 5 since you said 5%. Also, 10 4 ball players since you said 10%.
;-)

These are pretty small numbers - I would be hesitant to make any conclusions on how they match up to star rating.


Last edited by HeadPaperPusher at 12/10/2009 3:00:56 PM

Even with 100 players, there must have been very few with 5 ball potential, no? Well, I am guessing 5 since you said 5%.

Of course. But at the same time, there were more than 40 2-ball players. :)

Furthermore, there was only one lucky guy who scouted two 5-ball players, nobody else scouted more than one, even out of 14 or 15 players.

Of course, when I say that we have a 40% chance of scouting a 2-ball potential player, I can safely assume that that number can range from 35% to 45%.
5%, however, is a very low figure and therefore can vary wildly. Nevertheless, I can tell you that out of 10 analyzed drafts, in 8 cases the rate of 5-ball players was well below 10%. The only real exception to this rule is the one I already mentioned, with two 5-ball players scouted out of 10.

Additionally, the % I reported seem to fit a smooth distribution. Judging from the slope of the right tail of said distribution, I would say that the real 5-ball % may even be lower...

Additionally, the % I reported seem to fit a smooth distribution. Judging from the slope of the right tail of said distribution, I would say that the real 5-ball % may even be lower...

I think maybe I'm just not understanding the data well and not bothering to actually read it.

maybe it is possible to make the numbers stronger in keeping an additinal eye on this conclusion, and make th sample bigger :)