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Well, I can tell you that I was pretty convinced that the cap is linked to salary too. The two guys I have in the all of fame were trained a lot in js, they stopped to pop when they got lvl 17-18 in js with a salary around 65-70k/week, their potential was all-star*
Now I think that the cap is still related to the salary but in a different way; if you train a lot one single skill you'll get the cap sooner and training one single skill a lot means also to have an higher salary that's why it is still related to the salary. If you train a good SF hardly you will get the potential cap, that's my opinion, I wait to see the results of the study

Well, I can tell you that I was pretty convinced that the cap is linked to salary too.

My theory is that it is not linked to salary. Only that the cap correlates well to salary under most conditions. I could give an example of two different allstar potential players: one who capped at 40K and one who capped at 90K. That seems to be a fair distance off.

Now I think that the cap is still related to the salary but in a different way; if you train a lot one single skill you'll get the cap sooner and training one single skill a lot means also to have an higher salary that's why it is still related to the salary.

The part about multi-skilling is indeed true. Maybe your theory is right, but I am going to start by exploring my 1st theory and see where it leads me. I will make sure to get player salaries from now on - in case I need to test a different path.

There is a lot of buzz that salary is not a cap, but combined skill point is, so if you could, test both theories to see which is more accurate. I don't know which one your doing now as I didn't read the first post entirely but if your only doing one as of now, try to analyze both.

Last edited by oriolekid at 8/27/2010 9:48:32 PM

There is a lot of buzz that salary is not a cap, but combined skill point is, so if you could, test both theories to see which is more accurate.

I will keep all possibilities in mind, but as I said I will test my theory first. I don't want to elaborate on the theory too much at the moment... Although like I said salary is not a part of it. Combined skill point is starting to get closer, but it is still not the complete story.

Anyhow, more to come once I have the data. And of course if my theory is wrong I will start to test others. ;-)

Again, a just for fun update. I now have 40 data points. Here is what I see now:

-Position has no impact on capping
-The model is exponential, similar to the salary formulas, but the coefficients are quite different. This means that the higher the skill, the faster you approach the cap per skill-up.
-Jump shot, jump range, inside defense, rebounding and passing all contribute significantly to capping (and at similar levels)
-Outside defense and inside shot contribute in a very minor way
-All other skills have zero impact on capping.

The number of data points was pushed up considerably when jbmcrock pointed me to a federation post where people were talking about their players who had capped. So thanks to him for that.

The data is still skewed in my opinion. I mean, the model fits really well, still with a .99 r-squared. But it only does an ok job of estimating allstar players. And even then, sometimes there are weird results. Of course, this is almost certainly because most of the data points come from allstar potential players, but that's another story. I also have too many PFs and Cs in the model and not enough PGs, SG, SFs. Also, weird players who capped with a lot of outside d or inside shot would really help.

But... as always, I will take the data from any player if he is capped. I will also continue the updates if the model changes or I get a significant jump in the number of data points.

Outside defense and inside shot contribute in a very minor way

That is both very interesting and very bizarre.

That is some very interesting and powerful information if what you say holds true for a larger sample. Especially this for my training:

Outside defense and inside shot contribute in a very minor way
-All other skills have zero impact on capping.

Excellent work as usual PaperPusher.

Last edited by idorux at 8/30/2010 6:52:30 PM

good job keep it up

Last edited by LA-Nir at 8/30/2010 7:01:24 PM

Just one question, how much players you received with driving around 18-20 and with handling also around 18-20?

Just one question, how much players you received with driving around 18-20 and with handling also around 18-20?

None. And although such an extreme example should not be 100% necessary, it would certainly be very helpful. In fact, any extreme examples like this can only serve to make the model better, and to also get to the final result much faster.

But in addition to that, I would also be very interested to get other types of very rare players. For example, players who have very balanced training (eg: capped with all skills equal).

Last edited by HeadPaperPusher at 8/30/2010 9:15:45 PM

That is both very interesting and very bizarre.

Well, like I said, the model is far from complete. But it seems that if I can keep the hype going, more people will want to participate. So I would certainly not accept any statement I make at the moment to be the truth. At least... not yet. ;-)

For example, the model says my HOF SF trainee is capped, but I sincerely doubt that he is.

They are just interesting results for the moment.


Last edited by HeadPaperPusher at 8/30/2010 10:08:40 PM