BuzzerBeater Forums

I understood what you said. I'm sorry if I wasn't clear on my point.

But I think the chances of 5 star player is around 0.1 or lower, which would make the overall chance lower:

1 - (.5*.1*.1) = .995
0.995 ^ 48 = .786
1- .786 = .214

So 21.4% chance of there being such a player - significantly lower than "a little above 50%"

I have no proof that the chance is .1 to find a 5 star rating or potential, but:
1) it seems more logical and realistic (players with "very high skill" are rarer than "average/respectable skill" in real life; same with potential)
and
2) based on my experience, out of 15 star ratings: 1 5-ball = .066, out of 4 potential ratings: 0 5-ball
thats a combined 1/19 = .05 - that would give us a 6% chance of having such a player in the draft, but i wont consider this an accurate calculation or my best guess because of the small sample size. I will go with 21.4% instead.
i know my sample size is not very big. that being said, i scout players based on their baseline ranking, scouting all the 5 and 4 ballers first; so unless the baseline rankings are completely reversed or completely random, the probability or finding a 5 star rating will decrease as I keep scouting (into the 3 ball, 2 ball, 1 ball baseline rankings) - (this would make my 6% chance even lower if i used my sample.)

but yeah, ill go with ~20% instead of <6%.

Not sure where u got 62% from. You already worked out that the chances of getting a 5 star/5 potential 18 year old is 2%. Isn't this the answer?. Of course this is based on the assumption that there is an equal chance for each age, star rating and potential which may not be the case.

Not sure where u got 62% from. You already worked out that the chances of getting a 5 star/5 potential 18 year old is 2%. Isn't this the answer?. Of course this is based on the assumption that there is an equal chance for each age, star rating and potential which may not be the case.

According to him:
2% chance of a given (1) player to be 5/5/18 -> 98% chance of given (1) player to not be 5/5/18
48 players in draft: 1 - (0.98)^48 = ~62%
thats how he got it. mathematically correct, but i believe there is a stronger argument that his starting probabilities are off.

Edit: forgot a 1

Last edited by j9s3 at 12/5/2010 12:31:22 AM

I still don't understand the maths. 48 players in draft: (0.98)^48 = ~62%, not sure why that calculation is used and what it means?

it's 1-(0.98)^48, but else yes.

Even if my starting projections are a little off, I expect the chance of each individual player to be optimal to be somewhere between 1 and 2%, and probably closer to 2. That gives overall chances of such a player being in the draft somewhere between 62% and 38%, so basically, the chance of having such a player in the draft is around 50%, and arguably a little higher.

Ahh i just figured out where i was going wrong.

Even if my starting projections are a little off, I expect the chance of each individual player to be optimal to be somewhere between 1 and 2%, and probably closer to 2.

How many 5 balls do you have this season? Is my league just having a horrible draft pool this season?

I have 2 5-balls out of 10. Either I'm lucky or you're unlucky so far.

Well, if youre scouting by baseline rankings, the lower the baseline rankings go, the less chance you're supposed to have of getting 5, so the percentage would still decrease.

But I still think you're lucky.

I think the BB's try to make this game as realistic as possible (without making it too difficult or complicated), so the really great draftees will be rarer than the good/mediocre/etc. draftees.

Edit: and when you say 2 5-balls out of 10, do you mean "2 5-ball star ratings out of 10 star ratings" or "2 potential ratings out of 10 potential ratings" or a combination of the two?

Last edited by j9s3 at 12/5/2010 12:33:42 AM

Even if my starting projections are a little off, I expect the chance of each individual player to be optimal to be somewhere between 1 and 2%, and probably closer to 2. That gives overall chances of such a player being in the draft somewhere between 62% and 38%, so basically, the chance of having such a player in the draft is around 50%, and arguably a little higher.

and it wouldnt be 38%, you forgot that the 1% would be multiplied twice (once for star rating, once for potential)
so as i said earlier, it would be:

1 - (.5*.1*.1) = .995
0.995 ^ 48 = .786
1- .786 = .214

So 21.4% chance of there being such a player - significantly lower than "a little above 50%"

2 5-ball star rankings out of 10. haven't scouted enough guys twice to say anything useful about potential yet.