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BB Global (English) > Should BB Staff share this kind of information?

Should BB Staff share this kind of information?

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This Post:
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315302.7 in reply to 315302.5
Date: 7/26/2022 10:35:27 AM
Wasted Potential
II.1
Overall Posts Rated:
465465
Second Team:
Hazards to Society
Second, I had expressed such opinion that randomness was too much nowadays, we are playing manager game instead of rolling a dice, we can't allow a few years efforts to be so easily and strongly affected by random factors.


I agree that a little less randomness would be nice, but this 43 PD was most likely across hundreds and hundreds of simulations, and the 92% win rate sound about right for a team 12 points better. I think it would be more interesting to find what the range is of the middle 95 or 97%.

When just looking at the range of all simulations you are going to have outliers from games where one of your best players got injured in the 1st minute (happened to me in BBM) or where you had multiple unlucky foul outs. So I'm not too concerned with seeing that number without further context as to the distribution of the scores.

This Post:
00
315302.8 in reply to 315302.7
Date: 7/26/2022 11:29:52 AM
Djstra
CBSL
Overall Posts Rated:
3737
outliers from games where one of your best players got injured in the 1st minute

I agree under such condition you are definitely unlucky. But still, negative feedback should help reduce the impact of randomness. For example,
the GE may calculate in the beginning which team has more skills advantage and even if injury happens, the rest of the players have some boost because the injured player inspired them.

Back to the example of the picture, the team with 92%+ win rate had no foul out or injuries in that game, so I can blame all the bad luck to the randomness of shot FG.

From: Djstra

This Post:
00
315302.10 in reply to 315302.9
Date: 7/26/2022 11:38:46 AM
Djstra
CBSL
Overall Posts Rated:
3737
what are you trying to express?

In that game, no foul out or injuries, so in that game, randomness of shots play the job of randomness, which infers that randomness of shots can be huge.

Last edited by Djstra at 7/26/2022 11:57:31 AM

From: Fresh24

This Post:
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315302.14 in reply to 315302.11
Date: 7/26/2022 12:58:07 PM
Syndicalists' BC
Naismith
Overall Posts Rated:
307307
I think that type of information can be interesting if it's done for a couple of big games per season, like the B3 Final and World Cup Final. But when it's used it should be publically and in a consistent way, it shouldn't be provided on an ad-hoc basis.

I agree that it is more than how lucky you are, there is a lot to learn from it. I would also suggest if it is shared, it better to be done publicly. But I will say, if I won a big game like B3 finals, it would take away from the joy to hear it was just a statistical anomaly and the better team lost. Maybe if you are sharing information like this, to do it well after the game?

This Post:
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315302.15 in reply to 315302.14
Date: 7/26/2022 1:26:14 PM
Durham Wasps
III.1
Overall Posts Rated:
16621662
Second Team:
Sunderland Boilermakers
On the subject of randomness, there are so many games ridiculous games must happen every day there are games. Yes it sucks if you're on the wrong end of it, but it is an almost definite mathematical certainty that someone, and probably quite a few people, will have what they consider horrific bad luck.

And it is right that this should be so.

This Post:
1212
315302.16 in reply to 315302.1
Date: 7/26/2022 1:44:29 PM
Tunjevina
Prva Liga
Overall Posts Rated:
632632
Second Team:
Krompir
Such information can be of huge help to the one getting it.

When losing -15 in an important game without injuries, many managers would think that their team isn't good enough, and may try to strengthen it, or give up chasing titles and sell some players. But if a BB staff tells you that it was just a random loss, and that in 20 such games you would win 19, it assures the manager that his team is well build already, and doesn't need further improvement.

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