I just completed my first season, took over the team after the 4th game. I took over a 1-3 team and was 5-9 at the all start break. After a few transfer and training, my team got on a roll and finished at 12-10. I'm not the same team I used to be :) Now Im in the playoffs where anything can happen....including my team falling flat on their face lol. I had some help as some of the teams in front of me became computerized, but the main point is my team improved tremendously since I took over.
If my current team played the 1-3 version, it would not even be close. It would be a 20 point blowout.
Of course along the way i lost to one of the worst teams (on the road), but also defeated a team that was much better than me. Thats sports for you, thats why they play the games!
Dont forget to consider other factors like home court advantage, perhaps staff that increases said HCA. Somtimes you might run into a bad matchup. Maybe his players strength is defense, that doesnt show up in the box score.