I think the best way to go about it would be to actually study tankers' behavior right now, this season. Easier said than done I know, but that could actually provide a reasonable estimation of weekly negative PD.
I'm a "tanker" in the context of this discussion. I don't deliberately lose, just straddle the salary floor to maximize profit. This season is the first time I've been above the floor, and I've never missed a playoff. Last season, I was a certainty to promote, until I lost the semi final in overtime after losing a key player at the start of the second half.
I make $190k while being competitive (without trying) in div3. I shouldn't be allowed to, but I would fly under the radar in that scenario.