yes, I can follow your theory.
What I don't understand is why one would be eager to get his enthousiasm below 5...
Say you have enthousiasm 9, and you TIE, then you go to 11, by the time the next game starts you probably have 9 again.
IF you CT, you will get down to 5, or 4, and by your next game you wil have enthusiasm of 5.
Now, in the case you CT we asume you win, otherwise it would have been hopeless all along. So next game you TIE to go back up to 7, which will probably make your enthousiasm 6 right before the final game, since you are almost sure you will need a final game if you TIE with enthousiasm 5.
So for your final game you can crunch with enthousiasm 6. This is not bad, but also not very good.
In the first case you might win, if you are lucky, since your enthusiasm is high, and your opponent might have played CT in the previous game, maybe even in both previous games... In this case you have won, since you can CT next game with enthousiasm 9 for an almost sure win... He will never get his enthousiasm as high as yours, not even if he TIE-ed his first game. Should you have CT-ed, and he TIE-ed, you will be quite even for the second game, maybe he will even be a little better, you CT-ed for nothing, since you didn't need it at all.
But let's say you loose. This will mean he either has a better team, or played normal or CT, in the first case you would have few chances of winning anyway, unless he makes mistakes. In the 2 last cases you don't need CT in your 2nd game to win, since his enthusiasm will have dropped below yours, so you play normal and you should win, your enthousiasm will get down to 8 by your next and final game.
You now have enthusiasm 8 and can crunch for your final game.
If you play this tactic and get unlucky, you loose, true. But with your tactic you are almost sure for game 1 and 2, but you start game 3 with conditions that could have been better... So it's not that simple to determine what is best.
It all depends on your enthusiasm, and your opponents, and what he chooses to do himself, and also that your opponent is slightly better, or you are slightly better, or about equal,...
They are not your friends; they dispise you. I am the only one you can count on. Trust me.