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draft player chances

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165528.8 in reply to 165528.4
Date: 12/4/2010 9:43:52 PM
Aussie Pride
ABBL
Overall Posts Rated:
545545
Not sure where u got 62% from. You already worked out that the chances of getting a 5 star/5 potential 18 year old is 2%. Isn't this the answer?. Of course this is based on the assumption that there is an equal chance for each age, star rating and potential which may not be the case.

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165528.9 in reply to 165528.8
Date: 12/4/2010 10:00:47 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
5151
Not sure where u got 62% from. You already worked out that the chances of getting a 5 star/5 potential 18 year old is 2%. Isn't this the answer?. Of course this is based on the assumption that there is an equal chance for each age, star rating and potential which may not be the case.


According to him:
2% chance of a given (1) player to be 5/5/18 -> 98% chance of given (1) player to not be 5/5/18
48 players in draft: 1 - (0.98)^48 = ~62%
thats how he got it. mathematically correct, but i believe there is a stronger argument that his starting probabilities are off.

Edit: forgot a 1

Last edited by j9s3 at 12/5/2010 12:31:22 AM

This Post:
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165528.10 in reply to 165528.9
Date: 12/4/2010 10:50:53 PM
Aussie Pride
ABBL
Overall Posts Rated:
545545
I still don't understand the maths. 48 players in draft: (0.98)^48 = ~62%, not sure why that calculation is used and what it means?

This Post:
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165528.11 in reply to 165528.9
Date: 12/4/2010 10:51:44 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
205205
it's 1-(0.98)^48, but else yes.

Even if my starting projections are a little off, I expect the chance of each individual player to be optimal to be somewhere between 1 and 2%, and probably closer to 2. That gives overall chances of such a player being in the draft somewhere between 62% and 38%, so basically, the chance of having such a player in the draft is around 50%, and arguably a little higher.

This Post:
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165528.12 in reply to 165528.11
Date: 12/4/2010 10:56:43 PM
Aussie Pride
ABBL
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Ahh i just figured out where i was going wrong.

This Post:
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165528.13 in reply to 165528.11
Date: 12/4/2010 11:17:13 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
5151

Even if my starting projections are a little off, I expect the chance of each individual player to be optimal to be somewhere between 1 and 2%, and probably closer to 2.


How many 5 balls do you have this season? Is my league just having a horrible draft pool this season?

This Post:
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165528.14 in reply to 165528.13
Date: 12/4/2010 11:29:11 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
205205
I have 2 5-balls out of 10. Either I'm lucky or you're unlucky so far.

This Post:
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165528.15 in reply to 165528.14
Date: 12/5/2010 12:29:06 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
5151

Well, if youre scouting by baseline rankings, the lower the baseline rankings go, the less chance you're supposed to have of getting 5, so the percentage would still decrease.

But I still think you're lucky.

I think the BB's try to make this game as realistic as possible (without making it too difficult or complicated), so the really great draftees will be rarer than the good/mediocre/etc. draftees.

Edit: and when you say 2 5-balls out of 10, do you mean "2 5-ball star ratings out of 10 star ratings" or "2 potential ratings out of 10 potential ratings" or a combination of the two?

Last edited by j9s3 at 12/5/2010 12:33:42 AM

This Post:
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165528.16 in reply to 165528.11
Date: 12/5/2010 12:38:20 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
5151

Even if my starting projections are a little off, I expect the chance of each individual player to be optimal to be somewhere between 1 and 2%, and probably closer to 2. That gives overall chances of such a player being in the draft somewhere between 62% and 38%, so basically, the chance of having such a player in the draft is around 50%, and arguably a little higher.


and it wouldnt be 38%, you forgot that the 1% would be multiplied twice (once for star rating, once for potential)
so as i said earlier, it would be:

1 - (.5*.1*.1) = .995
0.995 ^ 48 = .786
1- .786 = .214

So 21.4% chance of there being such a player - significantly lower than "a little above 50%"


This Post:
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165528.17 in reply to 165528.15
Date: 12/5/2010 6:21:45 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
205205
2 5-ball star rankings out of 10. haven't scouted enough guys twice to say anything useful about potential yet.

This Post:
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165528.18 in reply to 165528.17
Date: 12/5/2010 1:29:51 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
1818
i have just found at my draft list a beast:D 18 years old, 5balls skills A+, 5balls potencial, 6.2 height, pozition pf:D this is gona be excellent sg/pg with very good secondary skills after some time of training.

Last edited by juscious at 12/5/2010 1:30:13 PM

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