Flow almost surely determines (together with other factors) who takes the shots (allocation), but it also probably impacts which shot is being taken. This is all anecdotal, but it seems clear to me that low PA players commit a lot more turnovers and settle on contested shots or non ideal ones. Turnovers are very bad, subpar shots are also very bad in BB, but contested shots not so much in comparison.
For example, in LI the best shot possible is a dunk, then putbacks, layups, inside shots and driving layups in that order.Then after a massive drop in efficiency there are jump shots and 3s. Ideally you'd want to find players who for a reason or another (one being their PA and that of their teammates) have an above average share of dunks, layups and inside shots and avoid like the plague players who tend to be forced into jump shots of any kind and at any position, as those have a 25%-35% FG% drop in efficiency compared to inside shots and layups. A small extra dip for defended shots (2-3%, if at all) pales in comparison to that.
That is easily going to make a clear difference per game, you don't need extreme assumptions. This is all because of the way BB tactics are designed to punish inside shots for outside tactics and outside shots for inside tactics, so skewing the distribution of the shots in your favour is more important than getting open shots. A guarded 'well selected' shot is always much better than an open 'badly selected' shot. People have realised this intuitively for LI, when they found out they could get guards to take more driving layups and fewer jump shots, leading to both higher efficiency and lower salaries. We know this is largely linked to other skills, but I honestly can't rule out things would look very different without enough PA.
I have no proof that PA affects shot type and distance, but I believe it does, it makes sense and if that's the case the effect is likely much bigger than guarded v open.
Last edited by Lemonshine at 6/14/2020 7:53:08 AM