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draftees' potential: some conclusions

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121130.9 in reply to 121130.8
Date: 12/10/2009 2:58:44 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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As for the potential distribution, it was evaluated on a pool of little more than 100 players.


Even with 100 players, there must have been very few with 5 ball potential, no? Well, I am guessing 5 since you said 5%. Also, 10 4 ball players since you said 10%.
;-)

These are pretty small numbers - I would be hesitant to make any conclusions on how they match up to star rating.


Last edited by HeadPaperPusher at 12/10/2009 3:00:56 PM

Run of the Mill Canadian Manager
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121130.10 in reply to 121130.9
Date: 12/10/2009 3:48:07 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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Even with 100 players, there must have been very few with 5 ball potential, no? Well, I am guessing 5 since you said 5%.


Of course. But at the same time, there were more than 40 2-ball players. :)

Furthermore, there was only one lucky guy who scouted two 5-ball players, nobody else scouted more than one, even out of 14 or 15 players.

Of course, when I say that we have a 40% chance of scouting a 2-ball potential player, I can safely assume that that number can range from 35% to 45%.
5%, however, is a very low figure and therefore can vary wildly. Nevertheless, I can tell you that out of 10 analyzed drafts, in 8 cases the rate of 5-ball players was well below 10%. The only real exception to this rule is the one I already mentioned, with two 5-ball players scouted out of 10.

Additionally, the % I reported seem to fit a smooth distribution. Judging from the slope of the right tail of said distribution, I would say that the real 5-ball % may even be lower...

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121130.11 in reply to 121130.10
Date: 12/10/2009 7:21:29 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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Additionally, the % I reported seem to fit a smooth distribution. Judging from the slope of the right tail of said distribution, I would say that the real 5-ball % may even be lower...


I think maybe I'm just not understanding the data well and not bothering to actually read it.

Run of the Mill Canadian Manager
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121130.12 in reply to 121130.8
Date: 12/11/2009 5:27:23 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
959959
maybe it is possible to make the numbers stronger in keeping an additinal eye on this conclusion, and make th sample bigger :)