That being said, if you come in here and start kicking butt, then I'll accuse you of false modesty
No need to claim false modesty yet. Having said that, I was fully expecting to lose, since I knew Big Bucks would play Normal. That coupled with HCA would be too much for me to overcome without entering with an enthusiasm advantage or game shape, so I went TIE and had my best player come off the bench and play just 9 minutes.
All things considered, I don't know if this is a disappointing start (I mean, it's a 22-point loss in a TV game...), a promising start (suboptimal lineup, enthusiasm and HCA disadvantage), or neither. I'm going with neutral: you can't judge managerial quality until at least two weeks in when differences in enthusiasm and game shape finally have a chance to increase... but that's still a shitty result and I had my 30-game regular season win streak snapped. ;-)