BuzzerBeater Forums

BB Global (English) > Enthusiasm again

Enthusiasm again

Set priority
Show messages by
This Post:
22
271192.9 in reply to 271192.8
Date: 6/27/2015 4:27:09 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
596596
There's a somewhat groovy equation to predict enthusiasm for the entire season, day by day. I found it on these forums a few years back, so I'm happy to share it here as well.

=5+(E-5)*0.9535*EXP(-ABS(E-5)/60)

E = your enthusiasm going into the game.

Running your example in the model, the highest a team can get, running TIE the whole time and staying in the cup, is 15.9, which you would first reach immediately following the 9th league game (on a Saturday). However, then the next morning, you're already at 13.7 since you're being pulled back to 5. The following morning, you've fallen back to 12.1, and then down to 11.0 before you're Tuesday game, where if you TIE, you'll bounce back up to 14.7 (multiplying the 11.0 by 1.333), and then you'll begin your descent back to 5 again until your next game where you may choose to TIE again.

Also, keep in mind that playing Normal is the same as a night where you don't have a game.

It's always been an interesting part of being in the cup, as when you are in the cup, you have an extra enthusiasm boost on Thursdays if you can use it (if you think you can play TIE and still win), but then when you're out of the cup, you don't have to worry about breaking up your lineup to manage minutes.

This Post:
11
271192.14 in reply to 271192.3
Date: 7/10/2015 6:13:38 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
986986
I can give you facts of my enthusiasm.
Almost whole season TIE in league and in cup.
Wednesday: After B3 game enthusiasm was X
Thurday: cup semifinal so Play-off normal is same than TIE
Friday: enthusiasm is X-2 !!!

What is weird to me....maybe a bug in Play-off normal?

- why enth was higher on Wed evening than Friday evening....both are after one TIE.....

This Post:
11
271192.17 in reply to 271192.14
Date: 7/13/2015 4:37:13 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
596596
Not sure what exact time your enthusiasm updates, but if you TIE'd every game leading up to the Thursday cup game which you PON'd (so the same as TIE), your enthusiasm should have been as follows, according to the model that has never been wrong for me in ten seasons.

Friday, June 3rd: 13.4
Sat, after your game: 15.9
Sun, after update: 13.7
Mon, after update: 12.2
Tues, after your game: 14.7
Weds, after the day's update: 12.9
Thurs, after your PON Cup Semi: 15.5
Friday, after update: 13.4

So, if X was measured before the update on Wednesday, you'd have fallen from 14.7 to 13.4, which would look like 15 to 13 with rounding. If it was for after the update on Wednesday, then something indeed seems amiss.