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Season 66 Preview

Welcome to an unrequested introduction of my team as the Lion Rebels tumbles back into Div III with fear and loathing. Excluding last season, I've produced some rankings which are mostly wild shots in the dark based on data that changes by the minute throughout the first several weeks of the season. Sometimes I'm right, but usually I'm LOUD WRONG, which I proudly stand by.

How do I figure out the rankings?

I measure salary against the average for each category and then assign a point value based on that. What are the categories, you ask? Well, Buzzer-Manager supplies these numbers for us, and the categories I pull through are as follows:
- Total Salary
- Top 5 Salary
- Top 8 Salary
- Top 10 Salary
- Top 6-10 Salary

Of those categories, I weigh Total Salary the highest, followed by Top 6-10 (what I call "bench play" but that's mostly a figure of speech), and then Top 5 and Top 8 are weighted equally, with Top 10 weighted the lowest. Here's how it works (based on Total Salary):
Team Total Salary > League Total Salary Average + $100,000 = 60 points
Team Total Salary > League Total Salary Average + $50,000 = 50 points
Team Total Salary > League Total Salary Average + $25,000 = 40 points
Team Total Salary > League Total Salary Average = 30 points
Team Total Salary < League Total Salary Average = 20 points
Team Total Salary + $25,000 < League Total Salary Average = 15 points
Team Total Salary + $50,000 < League Total Salary Average = 10 points
Team Total Salary + $100,000 < League Total Salary Average = 0 points

And so on and so forth for each added category. Top 6-10 is weighted from 0-50, Top 5 and Top 8 are weighted from 0-30, and Top 10 is weighted from 0-15.

Once I have those set, I add each team's score up and divide by five and then you get the means by which I rank teams. Is it perfect? Nope! Is it normal? Not even! Does it make it more fun? I sure hope so!

Here's a quick example of how it works related to Total Salary. The average total salary (currently!) is $254k.
- 84th Street Hoopers has a total salary of $450k, which is more than $100k than the average, so they score 60 points in that category.
- Ewoks has a total salary of $274k, which nets them 30 points because it's less than $25,000 more than the average.
- Meanwhile, Chicago Trojans lands at $113k, which even if you added $100k still falls short of the average, meaning they score 0 points (I didn't think it would be fair to bring Windy City Heroes into this with their whopping $10k in salary at the moment.

Clear as mud? Great. Any ties are broken by the Top 6-10 rank (of which there were three this year). This looks like it is going to be an interesting season, with a couple of clear cut leaders and then a middle third that will look to bludgeon each other and a bottom group that has to figure out how to contend. But the great thing about this is that things will change drastically especially as roster moves are still on the horizon. So, it's important to note that 13 potential transfers out of the league, with only two of those being (not that) BIG (of) MOVES (two players with salaries of $14k or higher). And that doesn't include anyone bringing anyone else in.

My usual disclaimer: I'm not a scientist, but I am a dork who can't get enough of this dumb game, thus my predictions. Before the ranking predictions, here are some highlights and lowlights of our league.

Season 66 Preview - Part 2
Current League Leaders in Salary
1. 84th Street Hoopers - $450k. Five players at more than $50k.
2. Lion Rebels - $403k. Three players at more than $50k.
3. Mos Eisley Imperials - $342k. One player at more than $50k, which isn't really telling since Mr. Vaughn is set to make $137kk per week this season.

Fab 5's
These aren't necessarily the starting 5, but instead the top 5 paid players, in which we see the same trio with a slight switcharoo:
1. 84th Street - $334k - 74.2% of their total salaries
2. Imperials - $300k - 87.7%
3. Lion Rebels - $288k - 71.4%

Overall, the 16 teams average $182k for top 5 paid players with five teams averaging $50k more than that average and eight teams averaging less than the average.

Current League Leaders in Assumed Top Bench Players (Top 6-10)
1. Coolsville Comets - $105k ($21k)
2. Tulsa Tomatoes - $103k ($25.7k per [4] player)
3. 84th Street - $97k ($19.4k per player)

Just six teams are spending more than the league average on their top 6-10 players.

Season 66 Final Ranking Predictions
Feel free Stephen A me with these things. Just don't Shannon Sharp me ;) And don't forget, these salary numbers will most definitely change, but my terrible predictions never will! Total points achieved in my rankings will be in parenthesis. And typically, I have more commentary, but just arriving in this league, I don't have as much historical knowledge, so forgive me if I'm short-winded...I'm not normally.

16. The Windy City Heroes (0) - Zucchini goes all the way back to season 6 (happy anniversary!) Having transferred out their studs from last season, I'm assuming they're stockpiled for a new batch of stars. I'm certain this won't hold true unless they're looking to head down a division.

15. Celtic Saints (0) - Only two teams with zeros in my ranking mishap this season. Celtic is relatively new and forced up into Div III from IV.45 last year thanks to hitting the bar of Making the Playoffs.

14. Chicago Trojans (1) - PotatoPlayer scored their only points in Top 6-10 and are victims of being crowned champs in IV.51 last season.

13. Maryland Marauders (5) - Have no fear, MattyIce - plenty 13th preseason ranked teams in my flawed system have made it to the playoffs.

12. Hemet Hooligans (7) - Question: what is a hemet? Is it a mistype of helmet? Hazmat? Regardless, a playoff team two seasons running - this will probably be the one to bite me in the ass.

11. MORNINGZZZ (9) - While my own team name is boring, I love a great name - like, what was Coach J on when he signed up his squad in season 29 (10 YEARS AGO)?

10. Eugene Register-Guard 2.0 (15) - John Marcum follows me down from II.4. The former Yard Goats were in the NBBA as recently as season 64 so watch yo' self.

9. Motor City Machines (15) - Edging out Eugene thanks to 13k more in Top 6-10 salary, Motown elevated from IV.23 thanks to the unfortunate luck of bEiNG cRoWNed ChAMpioNs.

Last edited by Baine at 9/20/2024 12:47:33 PM

Season 66 Preview - Part 3
Season 66 Final Ranking Predictions Continued
8. Ewoks (19) - Venturing into our top half, Robwesben has also been afflicted with champion fever, arriving from IV.12.

7. Conquerors (22) - UFOs joins us from my second origin story land of IV.29 for their second foray into Div III.

6. Midwest Bulldogs (25) - Exfactor looks to fight for more than just a relegation series this season, but thanks to their 19 rostered players, they only rank 11th in average salary per player.

5. Coolsville Comets (25) - clubcool is also hoping they can avoid a relegation series yet again this season. Will their top tier 6-10 players boost them?

4. Mos Eisley Imperials (26) - Will Werner Vaughn be enough for them to fight for more than just a first round playoff exit?

3. Tulsa Tomatoes (34) - Tomato runs a lean crew, with only 9 rostered players, which means his top 6-10 is really 6-9, making his second highest ranking in that category even more phenomenal.

2. Lion Rebels (35) - I was not happy to see 84th in the same conference as my Rebels. The BB gods are not on my side!

1. 84th Street Hoopers (37) - The clear-cut winner, according to my sham system, JellyBP is surely going to rue the day I posted this for all to see.

Conference Standings

Big 8
1. 84th Street Hoopers
2. Lion Rebels
3. Midwest Bulldogs
4. Motor City Machines
5. MORNINGZZZ
6. Chicago Trojans
7. Celtic Saints
8. The Windy City Heroes

Great 8
1. Tulsa Tomatoes
2. Mos Eisley Imperials
3. Coolsville Comets
4. Conquerors
5. Ewoks
6. Eugene Register-Guard 2.0
7. Hemet Hooligans
8. Maryland Marauders

Playoff/Relegation Predictions
Great 8 Playoffs
Conquerors vs. Tulsa Tomatoes
Coolsville vs. Imperials

Big 8 Playoffs
Motor City vs. 84th Street
Midwest Bulldogs vs. Lion Rebels

Great 8 Semi-Final Matchup
Coolsville vs. Tulsa

Big 8 Semi-Final Matchup
Lion Rebels vs. 84th Street

Relegation Matchups
Hemet over MORNINGZZZ in three
Ewoks over Celtic in two
Eugene over Trojans in two

Season 66 Championship
84th Street over Tulsa in three.

And so, there you have it! Also, in picking the playoff/relegation games I did absolutely ZERO research and just picked based on what seemed good based on the text on my computer screen. Good luck this season and may the best team prove me wrong!

Last edited by Baine at 9/20/2024 12:47:14 PM

Also, a few points your analysis fails to consider:
- 84th Street is a zombie team
- Mos Eisley Imperials are absolute chokers
- Tulsa Tomatoes GDP constantly
- Hemet Hooligans have a hidden ability that makes them win more than half their games despite a massively negative PD

Thanks for the analysis, regardless of accuracy. Its nice to see some conversation as my last division had about 5 comments over multiple seasons.

I will say that you may have been generous to my Ewoks. I hope to stick around for more than a season, but there are some stout teams for sure. I played this game years ago (I think in the first 5-10 seasons or so). Alot has changed since I stared playing again over the last year.

Good luck to all this season.

Hahaha - I’m sure it will be a blood bath. Also, I’m certain there are at least a BILLION things my analysis is missing.

That’s why I like to do these posts - stir up some unnecessary controversy and spark some conversation.

I really appreciate you breathing some life into the league. It's a lot more fun when people give different views on how the league looks.

I had a few seasons away and restarted with a new roster. I learned a lot during those seasons and am trying to practice a bit more patience. But it's fun to recognize some of the teams I used to compete with, competing in the upper divisions.