Although GM-Perpete called us to stop, but this is interesting and I couldn't help, so here are some statistical checks I have done...
TL;DR:USA's outcomes on 18+19y, 11p is roughly a 1-in-50-season event for an individual country.
It would fail the "traditional 95% confidence interval test", but given that USA had already drafted for 60+ seasons, something like this is not too absurd.
Data: I used the NT-scout to scan all countries with 80+ active managers, and count the number of 18y11p and 19y11p prospects.
There are 38 eligible countries, 12746 managers (as of today) and 46+3 11p prospects.
Assumptions:1. Utopia dual citizenships are excluded. It would complicate things since we do not know how the flags are distributed. There are only 3 such players, so it should be alright.
2. Numbers of managers are as of today; the more accurate way to do things is to use the numbers in the draft day, but this shouldn't be too bad.
Model assumptions:1. Assume that the expected number of 11p is proportional to the number of active users. This can be somewhat deviated based on how aware the lowest league managers are about the draft, but let's forget this.
2. Assume that the distributions are Poisson. Just not that if assumption #1 is violated, ODP might be more appropriate than Poisson.
3. From #1 and #2, we assumed that the probability of drawing 11p per manager is a fixed constant P. Justin said potential is Gaussian distributed, but we can ignore that part and try to estimate P.
The result is shown in the link below. We used two ways to estimate P:
1. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). This is just a fancy way to say P = 46/12746 = 0.3609%.
2. Use a Bayesian approach with uniform prior distribution.
This leads to my claims in the TL;DR part.
(https://imgur.com/a/D7UAQ17)Last edited by Feizai Passing by at 3/26/2024 6:52:48 PM