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Now that we're done with S62, here's my understanding (may not be accurate) of the GE changes...

Passing matters more. It seems to pick apart zone, at the very least 3-2.

Speaking of zone, 1-3-1 is performing better. So it either, got a sneaky update to balance PA buff, or it already did a better job of shutting down the opposing PG early in the possession, perhaps?

Speaking of sneaky updates, the ISOs work like a modified patient now (which I love!). If you have high IS on your SF, congrats! You won the update lotto.

I think the ISOs help keep DR and IS relevant, but a smidge weaker than they were before. The slow offenses still need them obvs. The outside offenses clearly benefited from PA change and now seem slightly stronger than the rest of the pack.

OD is now in some weird paradox. If Coco's theory is true, and a great pass leads to an uncontested shot (according to GE) then that makes OD irrelevant in that moment?! Might as well be a 1?! lolol... But then, in the moments OD does matter, you really want good OD because you are already giving up pts on other possessions with an assisted shot/uncontested shot?

Like I said, a paradox.

Maybe the answer is really high OD on PG (in the hopes locking down the PG will lead to weaker PA from him) And maybe your SG and SF don't need as much OD as before? Maybe more shooting on them, more JUUUUMP RAAAAANGE... Perhaps?

This is my maltese falcon! JR will get a coeff buff and will become slightly more affordable. Why? Devs have alluded to making BB more like the modern NBA. And boy oh boy does the NBA love shooting threes.

Salary coeffs are "expected" to get tweaks at some point. I already started hedging with some trainees. My gut says one more season of data, maybe, before they change anything.

So if most of this is true, then where does that leave the slower offenses and post stuff? If they're already nerfed a smidge, according to S62 data, then a smidge more nerfing thanks to certain outside-based salary coeff tweaks would, uh, not be great.

I don't even want to go down the rabbit hole of where this leaves SB. (Shoutout to my SB Cult)

If anyone has anything to add I may have missed, please lemme know.



Last edited by CoachP at 11/25/2023 11:01:46 PM

great pass leads to an uncontested shot (according to GE) then that makes OD irrelevant in that moment?!

I would definately not agree with this statement. There have been various posts about how open shots efficiency is calculated. Could Justin reveal a bit perhaps? As far as i read open shots formula should be connected with team defense rating. You have to calculate your chance to make the shot versus something. Aint you?
Can someone rule me out?

If my point is accurate than OD is more valid than before (on ALL players that come into team defensive rating formula).

My NT team shot 20% more open shots this season to compare against 4 previous seasons average. They were 6% more accurate. Deeper reasearch with much more data would be needed though.

Since I was referenced in the original post: my own thinking is that we know that the shot is not defended by any one player.

This is compatible with it being compared to team defense or with being like a free throw.

I think it's perfectly comprehensible how it could be defended by no one -- again it would be like a free throw.

One complication with this proposal is that the rate of success for unguarded jump shots is a lower than FT%.

So we have a couple theories.

T1: the shot is unguarded, and just depends on shot distance but with a formula different from free throw.
T2: the shot is guarded by "team defense" in addition to those variables.

One issue with T2 is that we don't know what "team defense" means (is it some average OD? does it factor all the defensive skills?).

A rough way to test this (maybe it's been already done) would be to compare open shots between a game where the same players are going against different calibers of defense in otherwise similar conditions (same GS, same tactics).

Thanks. Having been away from the game for about 9 years, I've missed a bunch of these talks. Is team defense = team OD?

Thanks! I thought it seemed not right. Dig deep on that research! That NT stat is fascinating.

Very interesting. Thank you.