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Season 61 [late] Preview
Well, here's the unofficial, official welcome to those of us who now reside in Div. III.11. I like to do a little write-up each week, though my real life has been pretty busy lately, so I may not get to it every week...but to start the season, here's my way to early (when really it's just a day before the season, but we know there's probably still going to be a lot of movement to come) preseason rankings. Welcome to all ye newcomers (and one re-comer). I'm obviously hoping for all of your demise and my own glory, but I'm sure that won't happen.

Last season, once again, I predicted Philly Dribble would win it all, and boy did that blow up in my face. I wouldn't have thought they'd be in a relegation matchup. Instead, the Night King's White Walkers trounced us all enroute to Div II. Carolina came on strong right at the right time only to melt into a puddle in the finals for the Big 8.

And now, for my disclaimer:

As always (or at least for the last few seasons), these predictions are based on current salary statistics for the league. Last season, I modified it, and even though I was LOUD wrong, I'm sticking with it. Previously, I ranked teams by salary designations (Total, Top 5, Top 8, Top 10, 6-10) and then assigned points for each ranking, added it up and divided by the number of rankings.

But last season, I measured each salary against the average for each category and then assigned a point value based on that. For example for Total Salary it breaks down like this for teams $100k over the league total average and for teams $100k less the league total average:

Team Total Salary > League Total Salary Average+100,000 = 60 Points
Team Total Salary +100,000 < League Total Salary Average = 0 Points

We'll use this season's current salaries as examples:
- Linndale currently has a total salary number of $385,613, which is just over the league wide average of $272,979, so in that category they score 60 points.
- On the opposite end of the spectrum is FR-S, whose current total salaries are $165,590 - when we add another $100k to that, they're still less than the league average, so they score 0 points.

You then have variances for points assigned to a team based on how far they vary from the average with the above examples being the extreme.

This season I'm weighting Total Salary and Top 6-10 (bench play) the highest (range from 0-60 points), while Top 5 and Top 8 are 2nd tiered (0-30 points) and Top 10 is the lowest tier (0-15 points). Add those five category point totals and then divide by five and you have your rankings. All ties are broken by Top 6-10 rank.

If you're curious, I can provide the exact calculations, but I figure not everyone's as nerdy or interested as me so I won't bore you any more with this.

My usual disclaimer: I'm not a scientist, but I am a dork who can't get enough of this dumb game, thus my predictions. Before the ranking predictions, here are some of the highlights and lowlights of our league.

Current League Leaders in Salary
1. Linndale - $385,613. They've got 15 players rostered currently, which leaves their rank in average salary at 3rd, with Hearn making up the bulk of that, but Guyton and Knowles contribute significantly.
2. Miami Cleo - $362,137. I'm afraid this won't last as packer_22 hasn't logged in since tax day, which would be a shame. Here's hoping we don't lose one of the good ones.
3. Tasty Tardsicles - $328,732. No movement from Tards yet, with 10 rostered players making them the highest per average at $32k per player. I'd guess they would make some moves, but other than "Noodles" in February and transfering two other players, they've been pretty quiet with their roster.

Overall we're averaging $272k in salary, which is up 32k from last season, which was up 27k from the season before. Ya'll gone and lost your minds! This season eight teams are averaging less than that, with only FR-S averaging much less than the average. Żubr comes in just over $400 shy of this mark.. I'm sure there will be lots of changes to this and the rest of these categories over the course of the first few weeks.

Fab 5's
These aren't necessarily the starting 5, but instead the top 5 paid players:
1. Linndale - $303k - 79% of their total salaries
2. Miami Cleo - $264k - 73%
3. Tasty Tardsicles - $247k - 75%

Overall, the 16 teams average $194k for top 5 paid players with 5 teams averaging more than $200k and three teams averaging less than $115k. Six teams are paying more than $200k, while FR-S is the lone team spending under $100k.

Current League Leaders in Assumed Top Bench Players (Top 6-10)
1. Philly Dribble - $99k ($19.9k per player)
2. Żubr Białystok - $93k ($18.76k per player)
3. San Dominica Warriors - $88k ($17.6k per player)

Season 61 Final Ranking Predictions
Feel free to be an angry bird. And don't forget, these salary numbers have already changed, but my ability incorrectly predict these things never will!

16. FR-S - There's just not enough here for SFRS13 to do much of anything with, but only losing to Linndale by 22 points isn't terrible, kinda like Blaine Gabbert as a backup QB.

15. LionPride - Clement Holley looks like Victor Wembanyana on the Spurs' G-league team. Not looking forward to facing that, but at the moment, there's not much surrounding that guy

14. The Las Vegas Silver Stars - Not a lot separates numbers 12, 13, and 14 in my terrible rankings. I'm sure Vegas will find a way to be competitive.

13. 209's MostWanted - I was mean to them in the preseason last season too by ranking them 13th, but while they can score their defense is a liability, especially in this league (and that division).

12. BKDogs - A solid win on Saturday and the addition of Paulos Armonda gives BK a good start to the season and I've probably got them ranked WAY TOO LOW.

11. The Beer Bellys - Sticking around for another go, thatguy's group, aside from Isidre Homs and Yuce are starting to look like last season's Hustlas (old...). But Homs and Yuce are young enough to try and build around - let's see if the Keg is still standing at the end of the season.

10. Carolina Rebels - I did this last year too, and once again it's going to get me in trouble, but Carolina's 15 players total the 10th highest salary, 15th ranked in average salary, 11th in top 5, 13th in top 8, 12th in top 10, and 11th in top 6-10. They strategize and play sharply, which is how they end up making me look like I've got mud on my face.

9. Lion Rebels - Once again, my team shouldn't be ranked this high, though Kurt Brown is starting to come in to his own...I just wish he'd do away with those 1-25 from the field games.


8. Mindless Zombies - I caught the very end of the Zombies/Super Sonics game on Saturday and what a finish! Go check it out if you haven't, but a giant sigh of relief I'm certain, for the Zombies.

7. San Dominica Warriors - They say money can't buy you happiness, but have you seen a dude on a jet ski in the middle of summer? Looks like you can - anyway, regarding money, San Dom doesn't lead the way in any of these categories, but their depth is what traditionally helps them out down the stretch.

6. Żubr Białystok - whitestok's been building and now he's got a solid trio of Hatch, Grimm, and Quindos at the core that are continuing to grow. I don't know they have what it takes to go all the way this season, but they're steadily getting closer.

5. Super Sonics - To tie it up at the last second after battling so hard only to lose on a buzzer beater. Ugh - gut punch. Either way, looks like there's some stiffer competition in the Great 8 this season.

4. Philly Dribble - Last season's predicted #1 preseason team fell apart for reasons I can't understand from the outside. Even though they're getting a bit older, they're still a tough outing every game. We'll see if last season was an anomaly.

3. Tasty Tardsicles - Tasty's going with a slightly smaller lineup, but with only 10 rostered players, they still have the 3rd highest salaries for their players. They also get a boost in the top 6-10 department, which is how they end up here.

2. Linndale - This season, Linndale is ranked at the top of every category except for the top 6-10, of which they rank in the middle of the pack, just above league average. They'll be difficult, no matter where the game's played - but that's also why we play the games!

1. Miami Cleo - This isn't going to age well as I'm guessing bot-status will take over in the next week or two, which is a shame because he's done a real fine job with his top 6 players, most of which are right in their prime rig

Conference Standings
Typically, I break this part down based on my rankings, but I'm going to go ahead and suppose that Miami's prime time players are going to be replaced with the botification process, so I'll adjust accordingly in the below:
Big 8
1. Linndale
2. Philly Dribble
3. San Dominica
4. Lion Rebels
5. Carolina Rebels
6. 209's MostWanted
7. The Las Vegas Silver Stars
8. FR-S

Great 8
1. Tasty Tardsicles
2. Super Sonics
3. Żubr Białystok
4. Mindless Zombies
5. The Beer Bellys
6. BKDogs
7. LionPride
8. Miami Cleo

Playoff/Relegation Predictions
Great 8 Playoffs
Mindless Zombies vs. Tasty Tardsicles (upset!)
Żubr Białystok vs. Super Sonics

Big 8 Playoffs
Lion Rebels vs. Linndale
San Dominica vs. Philly Dribble

Great 8 Semi-Final Matchup
Mindless Zombies vs. Żubr Białystok

Big 8 Semi-Final Matchup
San Dominica vs. Linndale

Relegation Matchups
Carolina Rebels over LionPride in two
The Beer Bellys over The Las Vegas Silver Stars in three
BKDogs over 209's MostWanted in three

Season 61 Championship
San Dominica Warriors over Żubr Białystok in two.

And so, there you have it! Good luck this season and may the best team prove me wrong!

Final programming note: all of my quips and schticks are tongue in cheek meant to have a little fun.

TWO straight 4th quarter melt downs… disappointing.

Your team played a very tough game, but what you call a meltdown I'm calling my team deciding to show up in the fourth quarter.

I look forward to the rematch.

We didn’t deserve to win that with 15 turnovers on 10 assists. Good game, we’ll be a different team in our next match up.

Day 2 (Tuesday 23 May 2023) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
Lion Rebels 100 - FR-S 80
Linndale 88 - Las Vegas Silver Stars 75
209’s MostWanted 97 - Philly Dribble 121
BKDogs 111 - Mindless Zombies 🧟‍♀️ 94
Super Sonics 103 - Żubr Białystok 115
LionPride 63 - Miami Cleo 94
Tasty Tardsicles 83 - The Beer Bellys 89
San Dominica Warriors 87 - Carolina Rebels 106

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 121 : Philly Dribble
Rebounds : 60 : Miami Cleo
Assists : 30 : Carolina Rebels
Steals : 9 : Linndale
Block Shots : 7 : Miami Cleo, LionPride

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 37 : S. Rigaux (Philly Dribble)
Rebounds : 28 : G. Locus (Miami Cleo)
Assists : 9 : P. Matkowski (BKDogs)
Steals : 4 : K. Knowles (Linndale)
Block Shots : 3 : T. Armstead (Lion Rebels), T. Kuykendall (Lion Rebels), G. Locus (Miami Cleo)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : T. Begley (Carolina Rebels) (17 Points, 3 Rebounds, 7 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 25
Shooting Guard : T. Freeman (Mindless Zombies 🧟‍♀️) (28 Points, 5 Rebounds, 7 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 31
Small Forward : P. Paredi (BKDogs) (26 Points, 7 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 3 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 32
Power Forward : T. Armstead (Lion Rebels) (20 Points, 11 Rebounds, 4 Assists, 1 Steals, 3 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 32
Center : G. Locus (Miami Cleo) (28 Points, 28 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 0 Steals, 3 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 49

MVP of the evening
G. Locus (Miami Cleo) (28 Points, 28 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 0 Steals, 3 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 49

The bad performance of the evening
P. Cuellar (209’s MostWanted) (4 Points, 2 Rebounds, 0 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots)B. Huffman (LionPride) (2 Points, 1 Rebounds, 0 Assists, 0 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -2

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : A. Quiroga (Las Vegas Silver Stars), D. Chappell (Las Vegas Silver Stars), D. Lin (Super Sonics), G. Locus (Miami Cleo), I. Homs (The Beer Bellys) : 4 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : G. Sankoh (BKDogs) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : S. Hollins (Lion Rebels), A. Guilla (Mindless Zombies 🧟‍♀️), S. Hatch (Żubr Białystok), G. Locus (Miami Cleo) : 48 Minutes

The shooter : S. Rigaux (Philly Dribble), Y. Georgoulis (The Beer Bellys) : 7 Three points

The best performer : C. Holley (LionPride) : Rating : 16.5

The worst performer : L. Jackson (LionPride), B. Finney (LionPride) : Rating : 5.0

Week One Power Rankings - Part One
Week One Observations
With the first two games in the books, we'll call that Week One as we head into the first of the BBM games. As Season 61 gets underway, we've got six players averaging more than 25 PPG (including Clement Holley sitting at 39.5 after coming back down to earth and only scoring 22 PTS in their second game). Seven players are averaging more than 15 boards per game, with Miami's Geoffray Locus leading the way at 20 RPG. And lastly, three players are averaging 7 or more APG, with BKDogs' Patryk Matkowski hitting 9 assists in each of his games.

Team-wise, only four teams are averaging more than 100 PPG and four teams are averaging less than 90 PPG.

I won't do this every week, but just pointing a few things from the first two games of the season.
-> My "preseason" 5th ranked team Super Sonics starting out 0-2 is a bit of a surprise, though effort played into at least one of those games. There's plenty of time to rebound, though, and I expect them to turn it around.
-> As previously mentioned, the Silver Stars featured in two 4th quarter melt-downs, eventually losing each game by 13 points while getting outscored by 22 and 21 points respectively in the final frame. They took a 9-point lead into their road matchup with 209's and an 8-point lead at home against Linndale. No matter how you slice it, it hurts.
-> I do want to re-visit Mindless Zombies' buzzer beating victory at Super Sonics...Sonics started the 4th quarter up 70-65, and the two teams danced around that until about 7 minutes left in the quarter where the Sonics hit a couple of free throws to push their lead to 9. At that point, they held the Zombies at arm's length until with just under 4 minutes remaining, they started to make a push and got to within three, then two, then one, then back to three, then one, until the Zombies took the lead with 1:41 left, 98-96. Here's what transpired:
--1:28-- T. Hearn ties it at 98
--1:16-- Mindless' Hok Fung scores on a layup
--1:03-- Hearn again scores to tie it at 100
--0:53-- Mindless' Freeman hits a three to take the lead
--0:42-- Sonics' Coedo hits a jumper to put them down by 1 and a few moments later, the time out comes.

So here they are, having retaken the lead in the 3rd quarter and holding the Zombies off...they come in after the time out and their prize center Goldsmith turns the ball over with 23 seconds (I have a love/hate relationship with the "throws the ball away" turnovers in this game). Supersonics turn around and at once foul Acevedo, who makes both free throws to put them back up by 3.
--0:21-- Full Timeout Super Sonics
--0:16-- Matthews misses a three-pointer...first of all, they should, unless I'm entirely incorrect, have the rest of the clock without any threat of the shot clock running out, but fortunately Goldsmith starts his redemption tour early and grabs the rebound and then with 8 seconds left, "forces up a three" and scores to tie it up. And then this:
--0:00-- T. Hok Fung gets off a great pass to E. Maganja, who goes up for a dunk in a crowd. Scored.
Scored.
Scored.

I'd have been so mad at my team if they'd lost that way. Hopefully zhouzhaoxu doesn't rage quit the game.

Week One Power Rankings - Part Two
Transfer Report
I've been keeping track of transfers in and out since the first of May (the first day that transfers weren't eligible for last season's playoffs). In that timeframe, our league has had a total of 30 transfers (11 players brought in, 19 out). Average age of players sold is 29.5 with only 3 pre-20-year olds and five 35+ year olds. The average salary of players being sold age 25+ is $40,663 and those players selling for a grand total of $4.6M (special thanks to oriolekid for two of his players making up more than half that number).

The average age of the 11 players brought in is at 24 and the average salary of that is $20,296. We spent a grand total of $2.779M on those 11 players.

Of all those transactions, LionPride leads the way with 7 total transactions (6 sales; 1 purchase) and 209's ranks second with 5 transactions, selling 3 and bringing in 2 new players. There are (as of this writing) 9 players transfer listed totaling nearly $117k in salary, with teams looking for upwards of $1.2M in transfer fees.

Week 1 Power Rankings
For those of you who are new, my power rankings are based on a combination of average Efficiency Per Game (EFFG) rank and their Opponents EFFG (OPP EFFG) rank. Week one ties are sorted by difference in EFFG and OPP EFFG (ensuing weeks will take into consideration previous week's rankings to sort ties).

1. Lion Rebels
EFFG: 112 | OPP EFFG: 78.5
Longtime readers of my power rankings understand that I don't really think that highly of my team and honestly cringe every time they end up anywhere near the top of the list. Definitely receiving help from a matchup with FR-S early on, in a game in which my boys gave up 7 more EFF points to them than Carolina over the weekend. But that's also why I like doing these rankings in this manner, because it will most definitely change as competition ebbs and flows.

2. Linndale
EFFG: 112.5 | OPP EFFG: 81.5
While I suspect Speedtraps and them boys to be at the very least better than my Rebels, they too enjoyed the opening weekend prospect of playing the squad with a total salary just a tad above $25k over the salary floor. They did follow that up with (depending on whom you ask) a nice come from behind in the 4th quarter victory over Las Vegas.

3. Żubr Białystok
EFFG: 152 | OPP EFFG: 89.5
While they're LIGHTS OUT ahead of everyone else in EFFG, their OPP EFFG ranking of 5th ends up just barely screwing them over from being at the top of these rankings after week one. Even though Holley scored 57 points on them in game one, they exploded for an extremely efficient game, hitting the 165 mark. They followed that with a 139 EFF(ort) enroute handling Super Sonics. I'm looking forward to seeing whitestok's continued development of his crew.

4. BKDogs
EFFG: 138 | OPP EFFG: 107
Manager Wisdom must've read my preseason rankings with fury after forcing The Beer Bellys to submit in the second half of their first game. But they must've been so made they couldn't see straight because they started out their matchup with Mindless Zombies at a 13-point deficit before righting the ship and cruising the rest of the way, scoring the same number of points (94) in the final three quarters as the Zombies did in the whole game. Paredi has looked pretty good at the small forward position and Armonda appears to have been an apt pickup for their squad.

Week One Power Rankings - Part Three
5. Carolina Rebels
EFFG: 105.5 | OPP EFFG: 90
Daisy must always be pissed at me for what I write, but at least my Rebels beat them in game one before they turned up the heat against San Dominica for a 19-point victory on Tuesday night on TV. Early season maneuvering can wind up very important in the latter half as playoff pushes are being made.

6. Tasty Tardsicles
EFFG: 100 | OPP EFFG: 84
Tying in rank scores with #7, Tasty settled in at .500 after beating Miami on TV before traveling to the Keg for an upset loss to the drunkard Beer Bellys, losing by 6 after being up 4 at the end of the 3rd quarter. They were even up 83-81 in the last minute before Beer's Georgoulis hit a long three pointer and from there, we saw five fouls in 8 seconds of game time and the Bellys hit 5-6 from the charity stripe while Tasty's boys missed on four shots in the final 28 seconds.

7. Miami Cleo
EFFG: 97 | OPP EFFG: 82.5
It's probably irrational, but I really hate when teams botify, especially teams that have a good core together and have played the game for a long while. I guess packer_22 is a Supporter, so that might not happen as soon as I originally thought. But it will be just as lackluster with them not logging in and making lineup changes, etc. Although, maybe it's just because I'm 8-0 against them (including scrimmages)...that's probably it.

8. Philly Dribble
EFFG: 103.5 | OPP EFFG: 104
Phil_Wings struggled in their first game against San Dominica after a 12-point deficit in the 2nd quarter and they just couldn't catch back up, but then seemed to have taken out their frustrations against 209's in a 24-point trouncing where they never looked back after a first half difference of 25 points in which backup SG Sebastien Rigaux went 7-11 from three and 15-25 from the field enroute to 37 points in only 22 minutes. Straight fire.

9. Mindless Zombies
EFFG: 111.5 | OPP EFFG: 124.5
After their epic win on Saturday night, BKDogs smacked the Zombies around as previously mentioned. They've had a decent EFF total in both games and Hok Fung, Freeman, and Magajna are a good scoring trio for them. But you have to mark training up for some of their downfall, with Acevedo taking the backseat for 19-year-old Guilla to get his minutes in.

10. San Dominica Warriors
EFFG: 97 | OPP EFFG: 103
After what had to have felt like a good win, beating Philly with less enthusiasm, they traveled to Carolina and got pushed around for basically the whole game with the Rebels holding the Warriors to just average ratings for scoring, while out-rebounding them by 26 boards. It's a long season and I'm sure the Coach Stephenson's crew will be just fine as we roll along.