BuzzerBeater Forums

Since I was referenced in the original post: my own thinking is that we know that the shot is not defended by any one player.

This is compatible with it being compared to team defense or with being like a free throw.

I think it's perfectly comprehensible how it could be defended by no one -- again it would be like a free throw.

One complication with this proposal is that the rate of success for unguarded jump shots is a lower than FT%.

So we have a couple theories.

T1: the shot is unguarded, and just depends on shot distance but with a formula different from free throw.
T2: the shot is guarded by "team defense" in addition to those variables.

One issue with T2 is that we don't know what "team defense" means (is it some average OD? does it factor all the defensive skills?).

A rough way to test this (maybe it's been already done) would be to compare open shots between a game where the same players are going against different calibers of defense in otherwise similar conditions (same GS, same tactics).

Thanks. Having been away from the game for about 9 years, I've missed a bunch of these talks. Is team defense = team OD?

Thanks! I thought it seemed not right. Dig deep on that research! That NT stat is fascinating.

Very interesting. Thank you.

Salary coeffs are "expected" to get tweaks at some point. I already started hedging with some trainees. My gut says one more season of data, maybe, before they change anything.

I noticed a salary drop on 126 swiss players this offseason, almost all of them (124/126) are now 19 or 20yo, so maybe we already have some tweaks applied but only on players 20 or younger. The 2 other guys are 25 and 33yo...

Thanks,

So is there something I'm not aware of that can explain a salary drop on a 33yo or less player ?

Good stuff, mate!

Didn't get a chance to watch it up until now, unfortunately. Definitely liked it!

Interesting numbers indeed. Some quite unexpected win rates imho. Wanted to maybe see more data on the box-and-one defenses, as well as the outside iso offense but obviously they are not yet used enough and the sample size is way too small to extract any meaningful data.

What I plan to do sometime soon is to have a script go through all Swiss-system match-ups (for obvious reasons), B3 + all BBM tiers. Filter out all garbage time games, filter out all GDP games. Possibly filter out all injury-affected games as well. Then the results should not be too contaminated and the sample size might just be enough to provide some insights on the less frequently used tactics as well.

Keep up the good work!